Kalmar FF 1-0 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kalmar FF vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees GIF Sundsvall travel to Guldfågeln Arena to take on Kalmar FF. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 April 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Kalmar FF have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Kalmar FF haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Kalmar FF at Guldfågeln Arena this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
GIF Sundsvall — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Superettan this season, GIF Sundsvall have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kalmar FF 1.80 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Kalmar FF have won 1, GIF Sundsvall 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2022, ended 4–0 with Kalmar FF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Kalmar FF in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
GIF Sundsvall in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 47% versus GIF Sundsvall 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 50% | GIF Sundsvall 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.08 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.870 / defence 1.150 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.975 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 1.174. Data: 1 Kalmar FF games / 31 GIF Sundsvall games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 30% | Draw 27% | GIF Sundsvall 42%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | GIF Sundsvall 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, GIF Sundsvall are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Kalmar FF 40% | GIF Sundsvall 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Apr 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 30% | Draw 27% | GIF Sundsvall 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Kalmar FF 1.08 / GIF Sundsvall 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.870 / def 1.150 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.975 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.222 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
1.32
GIF Sundsvall xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Kalmar FF vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Kalmar FF 1 - 0 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Kalmar FF vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Kalmar FF vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 30% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Kalmar FF and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (2 meetings): Kalmar FF 1W | Draws 0 | GIF Sundsvall 1W.
What form are Kalmar FF and GIF Sundsvall in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kalmar FF's attack at 0.87x the league average against GIF Sundsvall's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, GIF Sundsvall's attack versus Kalmar FF's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
30%
3.28
27%
3.64
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
2.39
1.32
GIF Sundsvall xG
3.28
30%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
8%
12.24
14%
6.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 12.0 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 1.32 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kalmar FF's recent record stands at 13W 6D 11L from 30 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five. Kalmar FF haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
GIF Sundsvall, meanwhile, have gone 10W 7D 13L across 30 games — 1.23 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kalmar FF on 1.50 PPG, GIF Sundsvall on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kalmar FF have managed 8W 3D 4L from 15 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GIF Sundsvall's away record stands at 4W 3D 8L across 15 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kalmar FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.07 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Pre-Season
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 13W 6D 11L in their last 30 games (1.50 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 10W 7D 13L in their last 30 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Kalmar FF's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 1.80 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Kalmar FF or GIF Sundsvall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, GIF Sundsvall in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 25 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Kalmar FF have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2022, when Kalmar FF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kalmar FF's record when hosting GIF Sundsvall specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Kalmar FF
0
Draws
1
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and GIF Sundsvall?
From 4 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 3, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2025, when GIF Sundsvall 0-2 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and GIF Sundsvall?
Kalmar FF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 47%, GIF Sundsvall 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Kalmar FF) and 40% (GIF Sundsvall).
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; GIF Sundsvall in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 33% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalmar FF vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Kalmar FF's recent games and 40% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalmar FF and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kalmar FF defy the odds to beat GIF Sundsvall 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kalmar FF beat GIF Sundsvall 1-0 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.08 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.32 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. GIF Sundsvall landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.97 / defence 1.01, drawn from 1/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 30% | Draw 27% | GIF Sundsvall 42%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Kalmar FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 50%, GIF Sundsvall 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kalmar FF 1.50 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kalmar FF win broke the near-deadlock. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.