Sandviken 0-0 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandviken at 57%, yet in-form Kalmar FF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sandviken vs Kalmar FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sandviken host Kalmar FF at Jernvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 March 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Sandviken have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Sandviken's home record at Jernvallen: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Sandviken are significantly better at Jernvallen than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kalmar FF stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Kalmar FF haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Kalmar FF's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Kalmar FF — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Sandviken in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Kalmar FF in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandviken 57% versus Kalmar FF 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandviken 67% | Kalmar FF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandviken 1.87 xG and Kalmar FF 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandviken attack 1.060 / defence 0.997 | Kalmar FF attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.194. Data: 30 Sandviken games / 0 Kalmar FF games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Sandviken 57% | Draw 24% | Kalmar FF 19%. Fair-value odds: Sandviken 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Kalmar FF 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Sandviken (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandviken at 57% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Kalmar FF (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Sandviken 50% | Kalmar FF 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandviken vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Jernvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Mar 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandviken 57% | Draw 24% | Kalmar FF 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Sandviken 1.87 / Kalmar FF 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Sandviken attack 1.060 / def 0.997 | Kalmar FF attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Sandviken (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Sandviken xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Kalmar FF xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandviken vs Kalmar FF kick off?
Sandviken vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Jernvallen.
What was the final score in Sandviken vs Kalmar FF?
Sandviken 0 - 0 Kalmar FF.
Where is Sandviken vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Jernvallen.
What competition is Sandviken vs Kalmar FF part of?
Sandviken vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sandviken vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives Sandviken a 57% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sandviken the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandviken vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sandviken and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will Sandviken vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and Kalmar FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sandviken and Kalmar FF in?
Sandviken (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Kalmar FF (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sandviken's attack rating (1.06) and Kalmar FF's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kalmar FF's attack versus Sandviken's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandviken Win
57%
1.77
24%
4.13
19%
5.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Sandviken xG
Total xG
2.88
1.01
Kalmar FF xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
5.20
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
15%
6.49
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
3%
33.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.5 | 10.6 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandviken vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Sandviken and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Sandviken and 1.01 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandviken vs Kalmar FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sandviken's recent record stands at 12W 7D 11L from 30 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Kalmar FF, meanwhile, have gone 13W 6D 11L across 30 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five. Kalmar FF haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sandviken on 1.43 PPG, Kalmar FF on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sandviken have managed 9W 2D 4L from 15 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — Sandviken are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Kalmar FF's away record stands at 5W 3D 7L across 15 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sandviken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sandviken are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.17 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandviken
Current Season
Kalmar FF
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandviken and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
Sandviken have gone 12W 7D 11L in their last 30 games (1.43 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 13W 6D 11L in their last 30 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandviken at home or Kalmar FF away?
Sandviken's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandviken at home: 1.93 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Sandviken or Kalmar FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandviken have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Kalmar FF in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sandviken and Kalmar FF runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 20 September 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sandviken
1
Draws
1
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and Kalmar FF?
From 2 meetings on record, Sandviken have won 0, Kalmar FF have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandviken and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2025, when Kalmar FF 4-0 Sandviken.
Who has won more matches between Sandviken and Kalmar FF?
Kalmar FF have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sandviken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandviken 53%, Kalmar FF 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Sandviken and 53% for Kalmar FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandviken keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Kalmar FF in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandviken home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandviken play Kalmar FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Sandviken's recent matches and 47% of Kalmar FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandviken vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Sandviken's matches and 53% of Kalmar FF's.
Do Sandviken and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
Sandviken have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sandviken's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jernvallen, Regular Season - 1, as Sandviken and Kalmar FF drew 0-0 in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandviken 1.87 xG and Kalmar FF 1.01 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sandviken fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Kalmar FF landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandviken attack 1.06 / defence 1.00 against Kalmar FF attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandviken 57% | Draw 24% | Kalmar FF 19%, with Sandviken to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandviken 67%, Kalmar FF 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandviken's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandviken 1.43 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sandviken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.