IFK Varnamo 3-0 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 38%, yet in-form IFK Varnamo provide a compelling counter-argument — this IFK Varnamo vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Finnvedsvallen plays host to IFK Varnamo versus GIF Sundsvall in Superettan (matchday 2). Kick-off: Tuesday 14 April 2026 at 18:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

IFK Varnamo have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

IFK Varnamo's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

GIF Sundsvall (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, GIF Sundsvall have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in IFK Varnamo's favour (1.50 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for IFK Varnamo, 1 for GIF Sundsvall and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2022, ended IFK Varnamo 2–1 GIF Sundsvall — a IFK Varnamo win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

IFK Varnamo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 32 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

GIF Sundsvall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 32 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Varnamo 47% versus GIF Sundsvall 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Varnamo 41% | GIF Sundsvall 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: IFK Varnamo surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while GIF Sundsvall have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.36 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.875 / defence 1.150 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.974 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.606 / away 1.277. Data: built from IFK Varnamo's last 1 games and GIF Sundsvall's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 35% | Draw 27% | GIF Sundsvall 38%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 2.86 | Draw 3.69 | GIF Sundsvall 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form IFK Varnamo (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: IFK Varnamo 40% (last 10 home games) | GIF Sundsvall 60% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (IFK Varnamo 1 games, GIF Sundsvall 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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