IK brage 3-4 Oddevold – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this IK brage vs Oddevold fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 2 as IK brage welcome Oddevold to Domnarvsvallen. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 April 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, IK brage have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
IK brage at Domnarvsvallen this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Oddevold — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Oddevold away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (IK brage) versus 1.30 (Oddevold). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The previous 4 encounters between these sides heavily favour Oddevold, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for IK brage.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 0–4 with Oddevold winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Oddevold have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
IK brage trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Oddevold trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 53% versus Oddevold 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 50% | Oddevold 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.66 xG and Oddevold 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 1.111 / defence 1.113 | Oddevold attack 1.017 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.137. Data: 31 IK brage games / 31 Oddevold games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: IK brage 45% | Draw 26% | Oddevold 29%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Oddevold 3.45. IK brage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IK brage as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IK brage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IK brage 90% | Oddevold 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Oddevold | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Apr 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 45% | Draw 26% | Oddevold 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG IK brage 1.66 / Oddevold 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 1.111 / def 1.113 | Oddevold attack 1.017 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: IK brage (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Oddevold xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Oddevold kick off?
IK brage vs Oddevold kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 12 April 2026 at Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Oddevold?
IK brage 3 - 4 Oddevold.
Where is IK brage vs Oddevold being played?
The match is being played at Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Oddevold part of?
IK brage vs Oddevold is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Oddevold?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 45% chance of winning, Oddevold a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Oddevold?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both IK brage and Oddevold will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Oddevold have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Oddevold?
Record (4 meetings): IK brage 0W | Draws 1 | Oddevold 3W.
What form are IK brage and Oddevold in?
IK brage (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Oddevold (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from IK brage's attack rating (1.11) and Oddevold's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Oddevold's attack versus IK brage's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
45%
2.21
26%
3.88
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
IK brage xG
Total xG
2.94
1.29
Oddevold xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
13%
8.00
6%
18.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.2 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Oddevold?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are IK brage and Oddevold expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for IK brage and 1.29 for Oddevold, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Oddevold?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IK brage's recent record stands at 22W 16D 22L from 60 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Oddevold, meanwhile, have gone 21W 21D 18L across 60 games — 1.40 PPG, with W-L-D-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: IK brage on 1.37 PPG, Oddevold on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, IK brage have managed 12W 6D 12L from 30 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Oddevold's away record stands at 11W 11D 8L across 30 trips, a 1.47 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
IK brage are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Oddevold are on 1.27 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Current Season
Oddevold
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and Oddevold in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 22W 16D 22L in their last 60 games (1.37 PPG), while Oddevold have gone 21W 21D 18L in their last 60 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Oddevold away?
Oddevold's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 1.40 PPG; Oddevold away: 1.47 PPG.
Have IK brage or Oddevold been keeping clean sheets recently?
IK brage have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Oddevold in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Oddevold have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Sep 2025, when Oddevold won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IK brage's record when hosting Oddevold specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
IK brage
1
Draws
4
Oddevold
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Oddevold?
From 5 meetings on record, IK brage have won 0, Oddevold have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Oddevold last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when IK brage 3-4 Oddevold.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and Oddevold?
Oddevold have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Oddevold are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 57%, Oddevold 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (IK brage) and 50% (Oddevold).
On the defensive side: Oddevold in 37%; Oddevold in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Oddevold away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play Oddevold?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of IK brage's recent matches and 50% of Oddevold's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IK brage vs Oddevold usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of IK brage's recent games and 50% of Oddevold's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IK brage and Oddevold tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Oddevold in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Oddevold defy the odds to beat IK brage 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oddevold beat IK brage 3-4 at Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 2, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.66 xG and Oddevold 1.29 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. IK brage beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Oddevold outscored their 1.29 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 1.11 / defence 1.11 against Oddevold attack 1.02 / defence 0.94, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 45% | Draw 26% | Oddevold 29%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Oddevold win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 50%, Oddevold 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Oddevold's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IK brage 1.37 PPG, Oddevold 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oddevold win broke the near-deadlock. IK brage (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Oddevold (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.