Helsingborg 1-2 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Helsingborg face Landskrona BoIS.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Landskrona BoIS travel to Olympia to take on Helsingborg in Superettan (matchday 20). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 29 August 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Helsingborg have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Helsingborg's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Landskrona BoIS stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Landskrona BoIS's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Helsingborg) versus 1.10 (Landskrona BoIS). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Helsingborg, 1 for Landskrona BoIS and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 May 2023, ended Helsingborg 1–2 Landskrona BoIS — a Landskrona BoIS win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Helsingborg in-play tendencies (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Landskrona BoIS in-play tendencies (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 53% versus Landskrona BoIS 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 47% | Landskrona BoIS 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Helsingborg surrender their half-time lead 54% of the time, while Landskrona BoIS have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 37% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Landskrona BoIS surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Helsingborg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 32% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 1.36 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 0.758 / defence 1.253 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.943 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.533 / away 1.180. Helsingborg's attack rating of 0.758 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.36. Helsingborg's defence rating of 1.253 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Landskrona BoIS's projected output up. Data: built from Helsingborg's last 19 games and Landskrona BoIS's last 49.
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 35% | Draw 28% | Landskrona BoIS 37%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 2.82 | Draw 3.60 | Landskrona BoIS 2.72. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Helsingborg 40% (last 10 home games) | Landskrona BoIS 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, matchday 20 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Tuesday 29 August 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 35% | Draw 28% | Landskrona BoIS 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Helsingborg 1.36 / Landskrona BoIS 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 0.758 / def 1.253 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.943 / def 1.174 | league avg home 1.533 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Landskrona BoIS xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS FAQs
What time does Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Tuesday 29 August 2023 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Helsingborg 1 - 2 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS is a Superettan fixture (matchday 20) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 35% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Helsingborg's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Landskrona BoIS's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus Helsingborg's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Helsingborg's last 19 games and Landskrona BoIS's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
35%
2.82
28%
3.60
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.76
1.39
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
9%
11.37
9%
10.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.1 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Helsingborg and 1.39 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, Helsingborg have picked up 0.71 PPG on a 8W 11D 30L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Landskrona BoIS's form line: 18W 14D 17L from 49 games, 1.39 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Landskrona BoIS are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Helsingborg.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Helsingborg have posted 0.71 PPG from their last 24 home games (4W 5D 15L).
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 5W 7D 12L from their last 24 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Landskrona BoIS's recent record.
The Goals Picture
Helsingborg are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.29 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
Helsingborg (Home) vs Landskrona BoIS (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Helsingborg
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
❓ Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS Form FAQs
What form are Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 8W 11D 30L in their last 49 games (0.71 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 18W 14D 17L in their last 49 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Landskrona BoIS's away record (0.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 0.71 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent was as recently as 9 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Jun 2026, when Landskrona BoIS won Helsingborg 0-3 Landskrona BoIS.
Helsingborg's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Helsingborg
2
Draws
4
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Helsingborg have won 4, Landskrona BoIS have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 September 2026: Landskrona BoIS 1-2 Helsingborg.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Helsingborg see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 46%, Landskrona BoIS 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Helsingborg) and 50% (Landskrona BoIS).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg have failed to score in 42% of games; Landskrona BoIS in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 46% of Landskrona BoIS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Helsingborg's recent games and 50% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 62% of Landskrona BoIS's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Landskrona BoIS edge out Helsingborg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Helsingborg 1-2 at Olympia, Regular Season - 20, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 1.36 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.39 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 0.76 / defence 1.25 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.94 / defence 1.17, drawn from 19/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 35% | Draw 28% | Landskrona BoIS 37%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 47%, Landskrona BoIS 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Landskrona BoIS arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.71. Form held, and they took the win. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.