Landskrona BoIS 3-0 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Landskrona BoIS host IK brage at Landskrona Idrottsplats in Superettan, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 August 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Landskrona BoIS's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Landskrona Idrottsplats this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Landskrona BoIS are significantly better at Landskrona Idrottsplats than their overall form suggests.
Across all Superettan games this season, IK brage have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IK brage's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Landskrona BoIS at 0.80 PPG versus IK brage's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Landskrona BoIS, 1 for IK brage and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Jun 2023, ended 1–2 with IK brage winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Landskrona BoIS in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
IK brage in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Landskrona BoIS 60% and IK brage 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 50% | IK brage 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.46 xG and IK brage 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.864 / defence 1.066 | IK brage attack 0.758 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.192. Data: 48 Landskrona BoIS games / 48 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 47% | Draw 29% | IK brage 24%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | IK brage 4.17. Landskrona BoIS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Landskrona BoIS are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Landskrona BoIS 60% | IK brage 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Aug 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 47% | Draw 29% | IK brage 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.46 / IK brage 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.864 / def 1.066 | IK brage attack 0.758 / def 1.165 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
0.96
IK brage xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage?
Landskrona BoIS 3 - 0 IK brage.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 47% chance of winning, IK brage a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and IK brage?
Record (3 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 0W | Draws 2 | IK brage 1W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and IK brage in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. IK brage (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Landskrona BoIS's attack rating (0.86) and IK brage's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IK brage's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
47%
2.11
29%
3.50
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.42
0.96
IK brage xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
18%
5.52
6%
17.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.5 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 0.96 for IK brage, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Landskrona BoIS's recent record stands at 17W 14D 17L from 48 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IK brage, meanwhile, have gone 17W 12D 19L across 48 games — 1.31 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Landskrona BoIS on 1.35 PPG, IK brage on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Landskrona BoIS have managed 12W 7D 5L from 24 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — Landskrona BoIS are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
IK brage's away record stands at 7W 7D 10L across 24 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.33 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; IK brage in 62%.
Last 48 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
IK brage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and IK brage in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 17W 14D 17L in their last 48 games (1.35 PPG), while IK brage have gone 17W 12D 19L in their last 48 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or IK brage away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 1.79 PPG; IK brage away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2023, when Landskrona BoIS won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Landskrona BoIS's record when hosting IK brage specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Landskrona BoIS
5
Draws
3
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and IK brage?
From 10 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, IK brage have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when IK brage 2-1 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and IK brage?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Landskrona BoIS at 75%, IK brage at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Landskrona BoIS) and 58% (IK brage).
On the defensive side: IK brage in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play IK brage?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Landskrona BoIS's games and 67% of IK brage's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Landskrona BoIS's recent games and 58% of IK brage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Landskrona BoIS and IK brage tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, IK brage in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Landskrona BoIS run riot with a 3-0 hammering of IK brage.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat IK brage 3-0 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 19, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.46 xG and IK brage 0.96 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IK brage landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 0.86 / defence 1.07 against IK brage attack 0.76 / defence 1.17, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 47% | Draw 29% | IK brage 24%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 50%, IK brage 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
IK brage's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.35 PPG, IK brage 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. IK brage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.