GIF Sundsvall 1-1 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
GIF Sundsvall host Ostersunds FK at NP3 Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 June 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
GIF Sundsvall — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, GIF Sundsvall have posted 5W 2D 3L at NP3 Arena — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ostersunds FK stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ostersunds FK's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
GIF Sundsvall are in the better shape of the two on current Superettan data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, Ostersunds FK 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2024, ended 2–1 with GIF Sundsvall winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
GIF Sundsvall in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Ostersunds FK in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 47% versus Ostersunds FK 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 48% | Ostersunds FK 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.10 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.964 / defence 1.063 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.660 / defence 0.779. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.344. Ostersunds FK's defence strength of 0.779 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 43 GIF Sundsvall games / 43 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 39% | Draw 30% | Ostersunds FK 31%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Ostersunds FK 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is GIF Sundsvall at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: GIF Sundsvall 50% | Ostersunds FK 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jun 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 39% | Draw 30% | Ostersunds FK 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.10 / Ostersunds FK 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.964 / def 1.063 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.660 / def 0.779 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Ostersunds FK xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 June 2025 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK?
GIF Sundsvall 1 - 1 Ostersunds FK.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 39% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Ostersunds FK?
Record (4 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 2W | Draws 1 | Ostersunds FK 1W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Ostersunds FK in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from GIF Sundsvall's attack rating (0.96) and Ostersunds FK's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ostersunds FK's attack versus GIF Sundsvall's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
39%
2.57
30%
3.30
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.04
0.94
Ostersunds FK xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
15%
6.59
10%
9.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 12.2 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 0.94 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
GIF Sundsvall come into this having played 62 games, going 20W 15D 27L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Ostersunds FK sit at 1.29 PPG from 62 outings (20W 20D 22L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: GIF Sundsvall on 1.21 PPG, Ostersunds FK on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
GIF Sundsvall's home form reads 12W 9D 10L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Ostersunds FK have taken 0.87 points per game from 31 outings (6W 9D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ostersunds FK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIF Sundsvall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 1.27 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ostersunds FK in 61%.
Last 62 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 20W 15D 27L in their last 62 games (1.21 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 20W 20D 22L in their last 62 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Ostersunds FK away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.45 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Ostersunds FK go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2023, when Ostersunds FK won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
GIF Sundsvall's record when hosting Ostersunds FK specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
GIF Sundsvall
2
Draws
3
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Ostersunds FK?
From 8 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 3, Ostersunds FK have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Ostersunds FK 1-0 GIF Sundsvall.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
GIF Sundsvall see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 58%, Ostersunds FK 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (GIF Sundsvall) and 42% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Ostersunds FK in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Ostersunds FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of GIF Sundsvall's recent matches and 48% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of GIF Sundsvall's recent games and 42% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GIF Sundsvall and Ostersunds FK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 14, as GIF Sundsvall and Ostersunds FK drew 1-1 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.10 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.94 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.96 / defence 1.06 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.66 / defence 0.78, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 39% | Draw 30% | Ostersunds FK 31%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 48%, Ostersunds FK 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.21 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.