GIF Sundsvall 0-3 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
GIF Sundsvall host Ostersunds FK at NP3 Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 18 April 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
GIF Sundsvall — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. GIF Sundsvall haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, GIF Sundsvall have posted 6W 3D 1L at NP3 Arena — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at NP3 Arena.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ostersunds FK stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Ostersunds FK's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: GIF Sundsvall 1.90 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
GIF Sundsvall in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Ostersunds FK in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 53% versus Ostersunds FK 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (GIF Sundsvall 40% | Ostersunds FK 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.14 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.970 / defence 1.000 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.862 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.048. Data: 2 GIF Sundsvall games / 32 Ostersunds FK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 41% | Draw 30% | Ostersunds FK 29%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Ostersunds FK 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is GIF Sundsvall at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: GIF Sundsvall 40% | Ostersunds FK 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 18 Apr 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 41% | Draw 30% | Ostersunds FK 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.14 / Ostersunds FK 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.970 / def 1.000 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.862 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.324 / away 1.048 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Ostersunds FK xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 18 April 2023 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK?
GIF Sundsvall 0 - 3 Ostersunds FK.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 41% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Ostersunds FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Ostersunds FK in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from GIF Sundsvall's attack rating (0.97) and Ostersunds FK's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ostersunds FK's attack versus GIF Sundsvall's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
41%
2.44
30%
3.32
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.04
0.90
Ostersunds FK xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
17%
6.02
9%
10.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 11.7 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.3 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 0.90 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
GIF Sundsvall come into this having played 30 games, going 15W 8D 7L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-L. GIF Sundsvall haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Ostersunds FK sit at 1.13 PPG from 30 outings (8W 10D 12L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five.
GIF Sundsvall carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.64 PPG clear of Ostersunds FK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
GIF Sundsvall's home form reads 9W 4D 2L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Ostersunds FK have taken 0.73 points per game from 15 outings (2W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIF Sundsvall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 1.07 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Pre-Season
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 15W 8D 7L in their last 30 games (1.77 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 8W 10D 12L in their last 30 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Ostersunds FK away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 2.07 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 0.73 PPG.
Have GIF Sundsvall or Ostersunds FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIF Sundsvall have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Ostersunds FK in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Ostersunds FK go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2023, when Ostersunds FK won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
GIF Sundsvall's record when hosting Ostersunds FK specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
GIF Sundsvall
2
Draws
3
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Ostersunds FK?
From 8 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 3, Ostersunds FK have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Ostersunds FK 1-0 GIF Sundsvall.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 47%, Ostersunds FK 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (GIF Sundsvall) and 33% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Ostersunds FK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Ostersunds FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of GIF Sundsvall's recent matches and 60% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of GIF Sundsvall's recent games and 33% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ostersunds FK run riot with a 0-3 hammering of GIF Sundsvall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK beat GIF Sundsvall 0-3 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.14 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.90 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Ostersunds FK outscored their 0.90 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.97 / defence 1.00 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.86 / defence 0.89, drawn from 2/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 41% | Draw 30% | Ostersunds FK 29%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Ostersunds FK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 40%, Ostersunds FK 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, GIF Sundsvall arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with Ostersunds FK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.