Gefle IF 0-4 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Gefle IF at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gefle IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Varbergs BoIS FC make the trip to Gavlevallen to face Gefle IF in Superettan, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 August 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Gefle IF's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gefle IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Gavlevallen, Gefle IF have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Varbergs BoIS FC have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Varbergs BoIS FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Varbergs BoIS FC's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Gefle IF have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Varbergs BoIS FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Gefle IF lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 7.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Jun 2024, ended 3–4 with Varbergs BoIS FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Gefle IF — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Varbergs BoIS FC — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gefle IF 57% versus Varbergs BoIS FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gefle IF 57% | Varbergs BoIS FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gefle IF 1.73 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gefle IF attack 1.132 / defence 1.173 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.766 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.170. Data: 47 Gefle IF games / 17 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gefle IF 53% | Draw 24% | Varbergs BoIS FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Gefle IF 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Varbergs BoIS FC 4.35. Gefle IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gefle IF are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gefle IF if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Gefle IF 80% | Varbergs BoIS FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gefle IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Gavlevallen • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Aug 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gefle IF 53% | Draw 24% | Varbergs BoIS FC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Gefle IF 1.73 / Varbergs BoIS FC 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Gefle IF attack 1.132 / def 1.173 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.766 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Gefle IF (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Gefle IF xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gefle IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
Gefle IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 10 August 2024 at Gavlevallen.
What was the final score in Gefle IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Gefle IF 0 - 4 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is Gefle IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Gavlevallen.
What competition is Gefle IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
Gefle IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gefle IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives Gefle IF a 53% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Gefle IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gefle IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Gefle IF and Varbergs BoIS FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gefle IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Record (1 meetings): Gefle IF 0W | Draws 0 | Varbergs BoIS FC 1W.
What form are Gefle IF and Varbergs BoIS FC in?
Gefle IF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Gefle IF's attack at 1.13x the league average against Varbergs BoIS FC's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Varbergs BoIS FC's attack (0.77x) against Gefle IF's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 47/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gefle IF Win
53%
1.87
24%
4.21
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Gefle IF xG
Total xG
2.78
1.05
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
1.87
53%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
18%
5.65
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
4%
24.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.3 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gefle IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Gefle IF and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Gefle IF and 1.05 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Gefle IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, Gefle IF have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 13W 16D 18L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Gefle IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Varbergs BoIS FC's form line: 7W 10D 30L from 47 games, 0.66 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Varbergs BoIS FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Gefle IF are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Varbergs BoIS FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Gefle IF have posted 1.61 PPG from 23 outings (10W 7D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Gefle IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 3W 4D 16L from 23 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gefle IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gefle IF are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 0.96 scored and 2.02 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gefle IF
Blended
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gefle IF and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
Gefle IF have gone 13W 16D 18L in their last 47 games (1.17 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 7W 10D 30L in their last 47 (0.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gefle IF at home or Varbergs BoIS FC away?
Gefle IF's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gefle IF at home: 1.61 PPG; Varbergs BoIS FC away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Gefle IF
0
Draws
2
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and Varbergs BoIS FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Gefle IF have won 0, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gefle IF and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2024, when Gefle IF 0-4 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Who has won more matches between Gefle IF and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Varbergs BoIS FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gefle IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gefle IF 61%, Varbergs BoIS FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Gefle IF) and 56% (Varbergs BoIS FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Varbergs BoIS FC in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gefle IF home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gefle IF play Varbergs BoIS FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Gefle IF's games and 52% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gefle IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Gefle IF's matches and 56% of Varbergs BoIS FC's.
Do Gefle IF and Varbergs BoIS FC tend to score early?
Gefle IF have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Varbergs BoIS FC run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Gefle IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Varbergs BoIS FC beat Gefle IF 0-4 at Gavlevallen, Regular Season - 18, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gefle IF 1.73 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.05 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Gefle IF fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Varbergs BoIS FC outscored their 1.05 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gefle IF attack 1.13 / defence 1.17 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.77 / defence 1.05, drawn from 47/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gefle IF 53% | Draw 24% | Varbergs BoIS FC 23%, with Gefle IF to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Varbergs BoIS FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gefle IF 57%, Varbergs BoIS FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gefle IF's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Gefle IF arrived the stronger side — 1.17 PPG against 0.66. Form was overturned, with Varbergs BoIS FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gefle IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.