Gais 2-3 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gais at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gais vs Trelleborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Trelleborg travel to Gamla Ullevi to take on Gais. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 18 May 2021, 17:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 1.40 xG and Trelleborg 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 1.229 / defence 1.196 | Trelleborg attack 1.005 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 0.917 / away 0.871. Trelleborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.238 — this is suppressing Gais's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Gais games / 5 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gais 44% | Draw 29% | Trelleborg 27%. Fair-value odds: Gais 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Trelleborg 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gais are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gais offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Tuesday 18 May 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 44% | Draw 29% | Trelleborg 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Gais 1.40 / Trelleborg 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 1.229 / def 1.196 | Trelleborg attack 1.005 / def 1.238 | league avg home 0.917 / away 0.871 • Poisson stance: Gais (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Gais xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Trelleborg xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs Trelleborg kick off?
Gais vs Trelleborg kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 18 May 2021 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs Trelleborg?
Gais 2 - 3 Trelleborg.
Where is Gais vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs Trelleborg part of?
Gais vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 44% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Gais and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Trelleborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gais and Trelleborg in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gais's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Trelleborg's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Trelleborg's attack versus Gais's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
44%
2.28
29%
3.46
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Gais xG
Total xG
2.44
1.05
Trelleborg xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
15%
6.48
7%
14.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.7 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Gais and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Gais and 1.05 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Pre-Season
Trelleborg
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Gais have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2023, when Gais won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gais's record when hosting Trelleborg specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Gais
0
Draws
2
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Trelleborg?
From 4 meetings on record, Gais have won 2, Trelleborg have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gais and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 8 October 2023, when Trelleborg 0-6 Gais.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Trelleborg defy the odds to beat Gais 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg beat Gais 2-3 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 6, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.40 xG and Trelleborg 1.05 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Trelleborg outscored their 1.05 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 1.23 / defence 1.20 against Trelleborg attack 1.00 / defence 1.24, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 44% | Draw 29% | Trelleborg 27%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Trelleborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.