Vasteras SK FK 2-1 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kalmar FF at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasteras SK FK vs Kalmar FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Kalmar FF travel to Hitachi Energy Arena to take on Vasteras SK FK. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 August 2024, 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Vasteras SK FK — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vasteras SK FK have posted 2W 1D 7L at Hitachi Energy Arena — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Kalmar FF have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kalmar FF's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Vasteras SK FK at 0.90 PPG versus Kalmar FF's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Vasteras SK FK, 0 for Kalmar FF and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Jun 2024, ended 4–0 with Vasteras SK FK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Vasteras SK FK in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Kalmar FF in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 42% versus Kalmar FF 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 50% | Kalmar FF 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.23 xG and Kalmar FF 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.650 / defence 1.144 | Kalmar FF attack 0.875 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.639 / away 1.365. Vasteras SK FK's attack strength of 0.650 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Vasteras SK FK games / 48 Kalmar FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 34% | Draw 26% | Kalmar FF 40%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Kalmar FF 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kalmar FF are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kalmar FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Vasteras SK FK 50% | Kalmar FF 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Hitachi Energy Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 34% | Draw 26% | Kalmar FF 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Vasteras SK FK 1.23 / Kalmar FF 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.650 / def 1.144 | Kalmar FF attack 0.875 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.639 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: Kalmar FF (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Kalmar FF xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs Kalmar FF kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs Kalmar FF?
Vasteras SK FK 2 - 1 Kalmar FF.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs Kalmar FF part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 34% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Kalmar FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Kalmar FF?
Record (1 meetings): Vasteras SK FK 1W | Draws 0 | Kalmar FF 0W.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Kalmar FF in?
Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Kalmar FF (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Vasteras SK FK's attack rating (0.65) and Kalmar FF's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kalmar FF's attack versus Vasteras SK FK's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalmar FF Win
34%
2.97
26%
3.80
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
2.60
1.37
Kalmar FF xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
25%
3.92
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
9%
11.66
12%
8.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.2 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 1.37 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vasteras SK FK come into this having played 48 games, going 22W 9D 17L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kalmar FF sit at 1.27 PPG from 48 outings (18W 7D 23L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vasteras SK FK on 1.56 PPG, Kalmar FF on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Vasteras SK FK's home form reads 12W 5D 7L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Kalmar FF have taken 1.12 points per game from 24 outings (8W 3D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasteras SK FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.21 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Defensively: Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
Kalmar FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 22W 9D 17L in their last 48 games (1.56 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 18W 7D 23L in their last 48 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or Kalmar FF away?
Vasteras SK FK's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 1.71 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Vasteras SK FK or Kalmar FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Kalmar FF in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vasteras SK FK and Kalmar FF runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2024. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Jun 2024, when Vasteras SK FK won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vasteras SK FK's record when hosting Kalmar FF specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Vasteras SK FK
2
Draws
1
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Kalmar FF?
From 6 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 3, Kalmar FF have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Vasteras SK FK 0-0 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Vasteras SK FK and Kalmar FF?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasteras SK FK 38%, Kalmar FF 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Vasteras SK FK) and 62% (Kalmar FF).
On the defensive side: Vasteras SK FK keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Vasteras SK FK have failed to score in 38% of games; Kalmar FF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasteras SK FK play Kalmar FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Vasteras SK FK's recent matches and 54% of Kalmar FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasteras SK FK vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Vasteras SK FK's recent games and 62% of Kalmar FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasteras SK FK and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
Vasteras SK FK have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vasteras SK FK defy the odds to beat Kalmar FF 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK beat Kalmar FF 2-1 at Hitachi Energy Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.23 xG and Kalmar FF 1.37 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 0.65 / defence 1.14 against Kalmar FF attack 0.88 / defence 1.16, drawn from 18/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 34% | Draw 26% | Kalmar FF 40%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Vasteras SK FK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 50%, Kalmar FF 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vasteras SK FK 1.56 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasteras SK FK win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.