Sirius 4-1 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Sirius at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sirius vs Vasteras SK FK encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 3 as Sirius welcome Vasteras SK FK to Studenternas IP. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 April 2026 at 13:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Sirius have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

At home at Studenternas IP, Sirius have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Vasteras SK FK — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Vasteras SK FK haven't played a Allsvenskan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Vasteras SK FK's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Sirius are in the better shape of the two on current Allsvenskan data — 1.40 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sirius, 0 for Vasteras SK FK and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 2–1 with Sirius winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Sirius in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Vasteras SK FK in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sirius 77% and Vasteras SK FK 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 70% | Vasteras SK FK 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.55 xG and Vasteras SK FK 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 1.215 / defence 0.803 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.805 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.412. Data: 32 Sirius games / 2 Vasteras SK FK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: Sirius 52% | Draw 26% | Vasteras SK FK 22%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Vasteras SK FK 4.55. Sirius hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Sirius as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sirius offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Sirius 70% | Vasteras SK FK 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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