Sirius 0-1 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sirius at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sirius vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Djurgardens IF make the trip to Studenternas IP to face Sirius in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 April 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sirius's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sirius at Studenternas IP this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Djurgardens IF (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Sirius against 1.50 for Djurgardens IF. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sirius lead 2W to 4W over the last 7 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Djurgardens IF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Sirius half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Djurgardens IF half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 55% versus Djurgardens IF 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 62% | Djurgardens IF 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.51 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 1.044 / defence 1.029 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.947 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.392. Data: 31 Sirius games / 31 Djurgardens IF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sirius 41% | Draw 25% | Djurgardens IF 34%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Djurgardens IF 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sirius at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sirius if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 70% | Djurgardens IF 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Apr 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 41% | Draw 25% | Djurgardens IF 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Sirius 1.51 / Djurgardens IF 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 1.044 / def 1.029 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.947 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.441 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Sirius (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Djurgardens IF xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Sirius vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs Djurgardens IF?
Sirius 0 - 1 Djurgardens IF.
Where is Sirius vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Sirius vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 41% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sirius and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Djurgardens IF?
Record (7 meetings): Sirius 2W | Draws 1 | Djurgardens IF 4W.
What form are Sirius and Djurgardens IF in?
Sirius (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sirius's attack rating (1.04) and Djurgardens IF's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Djurgardens IF's attack (0.95x) against Sirius's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
41%
2.44
25%
4.02
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.87
1.36
Djurgardens IF xG
2.44
41%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
11%
9.46
8%
13.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.6 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Sirius and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Sirius and 1.36 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sirius come into this having played 60 games, going 24W 11D 25L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Djurgardens IF sit at 1.72 PPG from 60 outings (31W 10D 19L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Sirius against 1.72 for Djurgardens IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sirius's home form reads 13W 4D 13L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Djurgardens IF have taken 1.43 points per game from 30 outings (13W 4D 13L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sirius are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.43 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Current Season
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 24W 11D 25L in their last 60 games (1.38 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 31W 10D 19L in their last 60 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Sirius's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.43 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Sirius or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sirius have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 18 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 8-2 on 29 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sirius have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Djurgardens IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sirius
1
Draws
6
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 3, Djurgardens IF have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2026, when Djurgardens IF 2-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 53%, Djurgardens IF 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Sirius and 53% for Djurgardens IF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sirius have failed to score in 27% of games; Djurgardens IF in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Sirius's recent matches and 50% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sirius vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Sirius's matches and 53% of Djurgardens IF's.
Do Sirius and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Djurgardens IF defy the odds to beat Sirius 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat Sirius 0-1 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 2, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.51 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.36 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sirius fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 1.04 / defence 1.03 against Djurgardens IF attack 0.95 / defence 1.00, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 41% | Draw 25% | Djurgardens IF 34%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Djurgardens IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 62%, Djurgardens IF 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.38 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock. Sirius (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.