Degerfors IF 1-0 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates IFK Varnamo at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Degerfors IF vs IFK Varnamo encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Degerfors IF welcome IFK Varnamo to Stora Valla in Allsvenskan (matchday 2). Kick-off is Sunday 6 April 2025 at 16:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Degerfors IF — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Degerfors IF have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, IFK Varnamo stand at 3W 6D 1L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

IFK Varnamo's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 6D 3L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour IFK Varnamo — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Degerfors IF have won 1, IFK Varnamo 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.2 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 14 Aug 2023, ended Degerfors IF 1–0 IFK Varnamo — a Degerfors IF win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Degerfors IF in-play and half-time data (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

IFK Varnamo in-play and half-time data (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 60% versus IFK Varnamo 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 63% | IFK Varnamo 37%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.14 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.860 / defence 1.150 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.935 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.346. Data: built from Degerfors IF's last 1 games and IFK Varnamo's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 30% | Draw 26% | IFK Varnamo 44%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 3.37 | Draw 3.83 | IFK Varnamo 2.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is IFK Varnamo at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Degerfors IF's last 10 home games and IFK Varnamo's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Degerfors IF 60% (last 10 home games) | IFK Varnamo 50% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Degerfors IF 1 games, IFK Varnamo 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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