Osters IF 2-2 Sirius – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sirius at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osters IF vs Sirius fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Visma Arena plays host to Osters IF versus Sirius in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 28 June 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Osters IF have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Osters IF haven't played a Allsvenskan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Osters IF at Visma Arena this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Visma Arena.
Sirius (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sirius's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Osters IF's 1.80 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Sirius's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Osters IF — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Sirius — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Osters IF 67% and Sirius 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Osters IF 70% | Sirius 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 1.14 xG and Sirius 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 0.699 / defence 1.071 | Sirius attack 1.133 / defence 1.220. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 1.314. Osters IF's attack strength of 0.699 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sirius bring a strong defensive rating of 1.220 — this is suppressing Osters IF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Osters IF games / 42 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osters IF 27% | Draw 25% | Sirius 48%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | Sirius 2.08. Sirius hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sirius as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Osters IF (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sirius if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Osters IF 40% | Sirius 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jun 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 27% | Draw 25% | Sirius 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Osters IF 1.14 / Sirius 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 0.699 / def 1.071 | Sirius attack 1.133 / def 1.220 | league avg home 1.333 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Sirius (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Sirius xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs Sirius kick off?
Osters IF vs Sirius kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 28 June 2025 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs Sirius?
Osters IF 2 - 2 Sirius.
Where is Osters IF vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs Sirius part of?
Osters IF vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 27% chance of winning, Sirius a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Osters IF and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Sirius?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Osters IF and Sirius in?
Osters IF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Sirius (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Osters IF's attack rating (0.70) and Sirius's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sirius's attack (1.13x) against Osters IF's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 12/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
27%
3.68
25%
4.02
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Osters IF xG
Total xG
2.73
1.59
Sirius xG
3.68
27%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
20%
4.93
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
6%
18.13
15%
6.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 10.4 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Osters IF and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Osters IF and 1.59 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Osters IF's recent record stands at 16W 6D 8L from 30 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. Osters IF haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Sirius, meanwhile, have gone 12W 5D 13L across 30 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-L-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Osters IF by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sirius heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Osters IF have managed 9W 2D 4L from 15 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sirius's away record stands at 6W 2D 7L across 15 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osters IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Osters IF are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.57 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Osters IF have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Pre-Season
Sirius
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osters IF and Sirius in coming into this match?
Osters IF have gone 16W 6D 8L in their last 30 games (1.80 PPG), while Sirius have gone 12W 5D 13L in their last 30 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osters IF at home or Sirius away?
Osters IF's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osters IF at home: 1.93 PPG; Sirius away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Osters IF
2
Draws
0
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Sirius?
From 2 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 0, Sirius have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2025, when Sirius 1-1 Osters IF.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osters IF 47%, Sirius 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Osters IF and 53% for Sirius. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Osters IF keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Sirius in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osters IF play Sirius?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Osters IF's recent matches and 60% of Sirius's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osters IF vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Osters IF's matches and 53% of Sirius's.
Do Osters IF and Sirius tend to score early?
Osters IF have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Sirius in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osters IF and Sirius share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 13, as Osters IF and Sirius drew 2-2 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 1.14 xG and Sirius 1.59 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Osters IF beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 0.70 / defence 1.07 against Sirius attack 1.13 / defence 1.22, drawn from 12/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 27% | Draw 25% | Sirius 48%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 70%, Sirius 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osters IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Sirius's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Osters IF arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Osters IF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.