Mjallby AIF 1-0 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mjallby AIF at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Strandvallen plays host to Mjallby AIF versus IFK Goteborg in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Sunday 4 May 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mjallby AIF have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Strandvallen, Mjallby AIF have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
IFK Goteborg's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
IFK Goteborg's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Mjallby AIF. A 0.70 PPG lead over IFK Goteborg (1.70 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Mjallby AIF have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, IFK Goteborg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mjallby AIF lead 2W to 3W over the last 6 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2024, ended 1–0 with Mjallby AIF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Mjallby AIF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
IFK Goteborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 50% versus IFK Goteborg 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 48% | IFK Goteborg 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 2.12 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.360 / defence 0.893 | IFK Goteborg attack 1.018 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.254. Mjallby AIF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.360 — their λ of 2.12 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 36 Mjallby AIF games / 36 IFK Goteborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 59% | Draw 22% | IFK Goteborg 19%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | IFK Goteborg 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Mjallby AIF (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.12 / 1.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mjallby AIF as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.26 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 90% | IFK Goteborg 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 4 May 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 59% | Draw 22% | IFK Goteborg 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 60% | xG Mjallby AIF 2.12 / IFK Goteborg 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.360 / def 0.893 | IFK Goteborg attack 1.018 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.14
IFK Goteborg xG
60%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 4 May 2025 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg?
Mjallby AIF 1 - 0 IFK Goteborg.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg part of?
Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 59% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Mjallby AIF and IFK Goteborg will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IFK Goteborg?
Record (6 meetings): Mjallby AIF 2W | Draws 1 | IFK Goteborg 3W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and IFK Goteborg in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. IFK Goteborg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mjallby AIF's attack at 1.36x the league average against IFK Goteborg's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 2.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IFK Goteborg's attack (1.02x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
59%
1.69
22%
4.65
19%
5.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
3.26
1.14
IFK Goteborg xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.65
22%
Draw
5.20
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
12%
8.32
Win to Nil
19%
5.28
2%
43.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.14 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Mjallby AIF have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 26W 13D 21L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five.
IFK Goteborg's form line: 15W 20D 25L from 60 games, 1.08 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L.
Put side by side, Mjallby AIF are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against IFK Goteborg.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Mjallby AIF have posted 1.57 PPG from 30 outings (13W 8D 9L).
On the road, IFK Goteborg have gone 7W 10D 13L from 30 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjallby AIF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.10 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
IFK Goteborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 26W 13D 21L in their last 60 games (1.52 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 15W 20D 25L in their last 60 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or IFK Goteborg away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.57 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 7 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IFK Goteborg won 1-4 on 5 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IFK Goteborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Mjallby AIF
2
Draws
4
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IFK Goteborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 4, IFK Goteborg have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
They last met on 7 September 2026, when Mjallby AIF 1-4 IFK Goteborg.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 60%, IFK Goteborg 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Mjallby AIF) and 47% (IFK Goteborg).
On the defensive side: IFK Goteborg in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play IFK Goteborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Mjallby AIF's games and 53% of IFK Goteborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 47% of IFK Goteborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and IFK Goteborg tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, IFK Goteborg in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mjallby AIF edge out IFK Goteborg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat IFK Goteborg 1-0 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 7, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 2.12 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.14 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mjallby AIF fell 1.1 short of their projected output. IFK Goteborg landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.36 / defence 0.89 against IFK Goteborg attack 1.02 / defence 1.09, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 59% | Draw 22% | IFK Goteborg 19%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 48%, IFK Goteborg 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.