Mjallby AIF 3-1 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hammarby FF at 41% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mjallby AIF host Hammarby FF at Strandvallen in Allsvenskan (matchday 4). Kick-off is Friday 18 April 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Mjallby AIF have gone 4W 5D 1L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Mjallby AIF have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hammarby FF — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (70%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Mjallby AIF) versus 1.80 (Hammarby FF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Hammarby FF have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Mjallby AIF.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Jul 2024, ended Mjallby AIF 0–3 Hammarby FF — a Hammarby FF win.
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Mjallby AIF trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Hammarby FF trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 50% versus Hammarby FF 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 48% | Hammarby FF 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.02 xG and Hammarby FF 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.005 / defence 0.966 | Hammarby FF attack 1.093 / defence 0.787. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.173. Hammarby FF bring a tight defence (rating 0.787, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Mjallby AIF's projected output down. Data: built from Mjallby AIF's last 33 games and Hammarby FF's last 33. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 30% | Draw 28% | Hammarby FF 41%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 3.30 | Draw 3.51 | Hammarby FF 2.42. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hammarby FF as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Hammarby FF 4 wins from 6 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Mjallby AIF 90% (last 10 home games) | Hammarby FF 10% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Mjallby AIF 33 games, Hammarby FF 33) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 4 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Friday 18 April 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 30% | Draw 28% | Hammarby FF 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Mjallby AIF 1.02 / Hammarby FF 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.005 / def 0.966 | Hammarby FF attack 1.093 / def 0.787 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Hammarby FF xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF FAQs
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Friday 18 April 2025 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF?
Mjallby AIF 3 - 1 Hammarby FF.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 4) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 30% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Hammarby FF's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Mjallby AIF's last 33 games and Hammarby FF's last 33, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
30%
3.30
28%
3.51
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.26
1.24
Hammarby FF xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
9%
11.39
15%
6.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.24 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Mjallby AIF have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 26W 13D 21L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Hammarby FF's form line: 27W 17D 16L from 60 games, 1.63 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mjallby AIF on 1.52 PPG, Hammarby FF on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mjallby AIF have posted 1.57 PPG from their last 30 home games (13W 8D 9L).
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 10W 8D 12L from their last 30 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.48 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
Hammarby FF
Current Season
Mjallby AIF (Home) vs Hammarby FF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
Hammarby FF
Current Season
❓ Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF Form FAQs
What form are Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 26W 13D 21L in their last 60 games (1.52 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 27W 17D 16L in their last 60 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Hammarby FF away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.57 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from April 2022. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Hammarby FF have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Oct 2022, when Hammarby FF won Mjallby AIF 0-3 Hammarby FF.
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mjallby AIF
1
Draws
6
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Mjallby AIF have won 3, Hammarby FF have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: Mjallby AIF 0-2 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Hammarby FF see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 60%, Hammarby FF 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Mjallby AIF) and 43% (Hammarby FF).
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF in 43%; Hammarby FF in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 30% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 43% of Hammarby FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 53% of Hammarby FF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjallby AIF cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Hammarby FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Hammarby FF 3-1 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 4, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.02 xG and Hammarby FF 1.24 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Mjallby AIF beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.00 / defence 0.97 against Hammarby FF attack 1.09 / defence 0.79, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 30% | Draw 28% | Hammarby FF 41%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Mjallby AIF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 48%, Hammarby FF 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.52 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.