Djurgardens IF 0-0 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Djurgardens IF face Gais.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Djurgardens IF and Gais meet at 3Arena in Allsvenskan (matchday 4). This fixture gets under way on Monday 21 April 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Djurgardens IF's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Djurgardens IF have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Gais (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Gais's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Djurgardens IF, 1.60 for Gais — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2024, ended Djurgardens IF 0–3 Gais — a Gais win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Djurgardens IF — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Gais — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 47% versus Gais 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 47% | Gais 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.15 xG and Gais 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 0.914 / defence 0.978 | Gais attack 0.960 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.198. Data: built from Djurgardens IF's last 33 games and Gais's last 33.
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 36% | Draw 29% | Gais 35%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 2.76 | Draw 3.50 | Gais 2.84. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Djurgardens IF are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Djurgardens IF 60% (last 10 home games) | Gais 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs Gais | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 4 | Venue: 3Arena • Kick-off: Monday 21 April 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 36% | Draw 29% | Gais 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Djurgardens IF 1.15 / Gais 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 0.914 / def 0.978 | Gais attack 0.960 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Gais xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Djurgardens IF vs Gais FAQs
What time does Djurgardens IF vs Gais kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs Gais kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Monday 21 April 2025 at 3Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs Gais?
Djurgardens IF 0 - 0 Gais.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at 3Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs Gais part of?
Djurgardens IF vs Gais is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 4) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 36% chance of winning, Gais a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Djurgardens IF and Gais will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Djurgardens IF vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Djurgardens IF's attack rating (0.91) and Gais's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gais's attack (0.96x) against Djurgardens IF's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from Djurgardens IF's last 33 games and Gais's last 33 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
36%
2.76
29%
3.50
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.27
1.12
Gais xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
12%
8.49
11%
8.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 11.6 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Djurgardens IF vs Gais Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.12 for Gais, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs Gais?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Djurgardens IF's recent record stands at 31W 10D 19L from 60 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Gais, meanwhile, have gone 31W 12D 17L across 60 games — 1.75 PPG, with L-D-D-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.72 PPG for Djurgardens IF against 1.75 for Gais. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Djurgardens IF have managed 18W 6D 6L from their last 30 home games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gais's away record stands at 13W 6D 11L across their last 30 away games, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Gais are on 1.62 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Gais in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
Gais
Current Season
Djurgardens IF (Home) vs Gais (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
Gais
Current Season
❓ Djurgardens IF vs Gais Form FAQs
What form are Djurgardens IF and Gais in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 31W 10D 19L in their last 60 games (1.72 PPG), while Gais have gone 31W 12D 17L in their last 60 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or Gais away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 2.00 PPG; Gais away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or Gais been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Gais in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 14 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Djurgardens IF have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gais won Gais 3-0 Djurgardens IF on 22 Sep 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Djurgardens IF have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Gais — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Djurgardens IF
1
Draws
2
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Djurgardens IF vs Gais H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Gais?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Djurgardens IF have won 3, Gais have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and Gais last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 September 2026: Djurgardens IF 2-0 Gais.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and Gais?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 43%, Gais 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Djurgardens IF) and 57% (Gais).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Gais in 33%; Gais in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Djurgardens IF vs Gais Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Djurgardens IF and Gais matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 47% of Gais's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Djurgardens IF and Gais matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Djurgardens IF's recent games and 57% of Gais's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Djurgardens IF and Gais matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 70% of Gais's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Djurgardens IF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF and Gais finished level at 0-0 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.15 xG and Gais 1.12 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Djurgardens IF fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Gais landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 0.91 / defence 0.98 against Gais attack 0.96 / defence 0.93, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 36% | Draw 29% | Gais 35%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 47%, Gais 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gais's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.72 PPG, Gais 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Gais (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.