IFK Varnamo 1-0 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates IFK Varnamo at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as IFK Varnamo face Landskrona BoIS.

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Fixture Analysis

IFK Varnamo welcome Landskrona BoIS to Finnvedsvallen in Allsvenskan (Relegation Round). Kick-off is Sunday 24 November 2024 at 14:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, IFK Varnamo have gone 2W 6D 2L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

IFK Varnamo's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Landskrona BoIS stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: IFK Varnamo 1.20 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for IFK Varnamo, 1 for Landskrona BoIS and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Nov 2024, ended IFK Varnamo 2–2 Landskrona BoIS — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

IFK Varnamo in-play and half-time data (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Varnamo 48% versus Landskrona BoIS 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Varnamo 42% | Landskrona BoIS 64%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: IFK Varnamo surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Landskrona BoIS have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.24 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.761 / defence 1.122 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.164. IFK Varnamo's attack rating of 0.761 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.24. Data: built from IFK Varnamo's last 60 games and Landskrona BoIS's last 0.

Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 39% | Draw 28% | Landskrona BoIS 33%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 2.56 | Draw 3.58 | Landskrona BoIS 3.04. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, IFK Varnamo are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — low conviction — though recent form (IFK Varnamo's last 10 home games and Landskrona BoIS's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: IFK Varnamo 50% (last 10 home games) | Landskrona BoIS 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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