Landskrona BoIS 2-2 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Varnamo at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs IFK Varnamo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Landskrona BoIS host IFK Varnamo at Landskrona Idrottsplats in Allsvenskan, Relegation Round. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 21 November 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Landskrona BoIS — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Landskrona BoIS haven't played a Allsvenskan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Landskrona BoIS at Landskrona Idrottsplats this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, IFK Varnamo stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, IFK Varnamo have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Landskrona BoIS 1.20 PPG, IFK Varnamo 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Landskrona BoIS have won 1, IFK Varnamo 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with IFK Varnamo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
IFK Varnamo in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 60% versus IFK Varnamo 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 63% | IFK Varnamo 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 0.88 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.847 / defence 0.732. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.164. IFK Varnamo's defence strength of 0.732 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 0 Landskrona BoIS games / 60 IFK Varnamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 28% | Draw 30% | IFK Varnamo 41%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | IFK Varnamo 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IFK Varnamo at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: Landskrona BoIS 70% | IFK Varnamo 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Allsvenskan, Relegation Round | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Thursday 21 Nov 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 28% | Draw 30% | IFK Varnamo 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Landskrona BoIS 0.88 / IFK Varnamo 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.847 / def 0.732 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.13
IFK Varnamo xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 21 November 2024 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs IFK Varnamo?
Landskrona BoIS 2 - 2 IFK Varnamo.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs IFK Varnamo part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs IFK Varnamo is a Relegation Round fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 28% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and IFK Varnamo will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and IFK Varnamo?
Record (2 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 1W | Draws 0 | IFK Varnamo 1W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and IFK Varnamo in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. IFK Varnamo (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Landskrona BoIS's attack rating (0.85) and IFK Varnamo's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Varnamo's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
28%
3.55
30%
3.29
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.01
1.13
IFK Varnamo xG
3.55
28%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
42%
2.41
Win to Nil
9%
11.04
17%
5.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 15.2 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.13 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs IFK Varnamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Landskrona BoIS come into this having played 30 games, going 11W 6D 13L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L. Landskrona BoIS haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, IFK Varnamo sit at 1.03 PPG from 30 outings (7W 10D 13L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Landskrona BoIS on 1.30 PPG, IFK Varnamo on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Landskrona BoIS's home form reads 6W 4D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, IFK Varnamo have taken 1.40 points per game from 15 outings (5W 6D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; IFK Varnamo are on 1.00 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Pre-Season
IFK Varnamo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and IFK Varnamo in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 11W 6D 13L in their last 30 games (1.30 PPG), while IFK Varnamo have gone 7W 10D 13L in their last 30 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or IFK Varnamo away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 1.47 PPG; IFK Varnamo away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Landskrona BoIS or IFK Varnamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Landskrona BoIS have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, IFK Varnamo in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 24 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Landskrona BoIS's record when hosting IFK Varnamo specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Landskrona BoIS
2
Draws
2
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and IFK Varnamo?
From 6 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, IFK Varnamo have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2026, when IFK Varnamo 1-1 Landskrona BoIS.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 67%, IFK Varnamo 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Landskrona BoIS) and 27% (IFK Varnamo).
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo in 40%; IFK Varnamo in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play IFK Varnamo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Landskrona BoIS's recent matches and 40% of IFK Varnamo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs IFK Varnamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Landskrona BoIS's recent games and 27% of IFK Varnamo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Landskrona BoIS and IFK Varnamo tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, IFK Varnamo in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Landskrona BoIS and IFK Varnamo share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Relegation Round, as Landskrona BoIS and IFK Varnamo drew 2-2 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 0.88 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.13 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IFK Varnamo outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.85 / defence 0.73, drawn from 0/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 28% | Draw 30% | IFK Varnamo 41%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 63%, IFK Varnamo 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Landskrona BoIS 1.30 PPG, IFK Varnamo 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.