IFK Varnamo 2-1 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates IFK Norrkoping at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as IFK Varnamo face IFK Norrkoping.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
IFK Varnamo welcome IFK Norrkoping to Finnvedsvallen in Allsvenskan (matchday 26). Kick-off is Sunday 8 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
IFK Varnamo — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
IFK Varnamo's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.90 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, IFK Norrkoping stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, IFK Norrkoping have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — IFK Varnamo at 1.90 PPG versus IFK Norrkoping's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, IFK Varnamo have won 0, IFK Norrkoping 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Apr 2023, ended IFK Varnamo 1–2 IFK Norrkoping — a IFK Norrkoping win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
IFK Varnamo in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
IFK Norrkoping in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Varnamo 49% versus IFK Norrkoping 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Varnamo 47% | IFK Norrkoping 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: IFK Varnamo surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while IFK Norrkoping have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.03 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.632 / defence 0.844 | IFK Norrkoping attack 1.262 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.216. IFK Varnamo's attack rating of 0.632 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. IFK Norrkoping have an above-average attack rating of 1.262, which lifts their away xG to 1.29. Data: built from IFK Varnamo's last 55 games and IFK Norrkoping's last 55.
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 30% | Draw 28% | IFK Norrkoping 43%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 3.38 | Draw 3.59 | IFK Norrkoping 2.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Norrkoping as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Norrkoping offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: IFK Varnamo 30% (last 10 home games) | IFK Norrkoping 90% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 26 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 8 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 30% | Draw 28% | IFK Norrkoping 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG IFK Varnamo 1.03 / IFK Norrkoping 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.632 / def 0.844 | IFK Norrkoping attack 1.262 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: IFK Norrkoping (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
1.29
IFK Norrkoping xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping FAQs
What time does IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 8 October 2023 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping?
IFK Varnamo 2 - 1 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 26) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 30% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making IFK Norrkoping the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both IFK Varnamo and IFK Norrkoping will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates IFK Varnamo's attack at 0.63x the league average against IFK Norrkoping's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Norrkoping's attack versus IFK Varnamo's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from IFK Varnamo's last 55 games and IFK Norrkoping's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Norrkoping Win
30%
3.38
28%
3.59
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
2.32
1.29
IFK Norrkoping xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
8%
12.36
15%
6.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 1.29 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, IFK Varnamo have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 20W 12D 23L record — D-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
IFK Norrkoping's form line: 19W 15D 21L from 55 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Varnamo on 1.31 PPG, IFK Norrkoping on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, IFK Varnamo have posted 1.26 PPG from their last 27 home games (9W 7D 11L).
On the road, IFK Norrkoping have gone 8W 9D 10L from their last 27 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; IFK Norrkoping are on 1.44 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Blended
IFK Norrkoping
Blended
IFK Varnamo (Home) vs IFK Norrkoping (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
IFK Varnamo
Blended
IFK Norrkoping
Blended
❓ IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping Form FAQs
What form are IFK Varnamo and IFK Norrkoping in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 20W 12D 23L in their last 55 games (1.31 PPG), while IFK Norrkoping have gone 19W 15D 21L in their last 55 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or IFK Norrkoping away?
IFK Varnamo's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 1.26 PPG; IFK Norrkoping away: 1.22 PPG.
Have IFK Varnamo or IFK Norrkoping been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, IFK Norrkoping in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2022. They cover more than one competition — Allsvenskan, Superettan. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: IFK Norrkoping have taken the most recent 5 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Apr 2026, when IFK Norrkoping won IFK Norrkoping 6-0 IFK Varnamo.
IFK Varnamo's record when hosting IFK Norrkoping specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
IFK Varnamo
1
Draws
7
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and IFK Norrkoping?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, IFK Varnamo have won 2, IFK Norrkoping have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: IFK Varnamo 0-2 IFK Norrkoping.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and IFK Norrkoping?
IFK Norrkoping have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IFK Varnamo see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 54% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Varnamo 44%, IFK Norrkoping 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (IFK Varnamo) and 59% (IFK Norrkoping).
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; IFK Varnamo have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in IFK Varnamo and IFK Norrkoping matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of IFK Varnamo's games and 70% of IFK Norrkoping's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are IFK Varnamo and IFK Norrkoping matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of IFK Varnamo's recent games and 59% of IFK Norrkoping's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Varnamo and IFK Norrkoping matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of IFK Varnamo's recent matches and 85% of IFK Norrkoping's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IFK Varnamo defy the odds to beat IFK Norrkoping 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat IFK Norrkoping 2-1 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 26, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.03 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.29 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. IFK Varnamo beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.63 / defence 0.84 against IFK Norrkoping attack 1.26 / defence 1.15, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 30% | Draw 28% | IFK Norrkoping 43%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual IFK Varnamo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 47%, IFK Norrkoping 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Varnamo 1.31 PPG, IFK Norrkoping 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Varnamo win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.