IFK Goteborg 0-1 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IFK Goteborg at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IFK Goteborg vs Sirius encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IFK Goteborg and Sirius meet at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan (matchday 26). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 October 2023 at 17:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
IFK Goteborg have collected 2.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
IFK Goteborg's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sirius (all games): 4W 0D 6L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Sirius have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. IFK Goteborg's 2.10 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Sirius's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for IFK Goteborg, 1 for Sirius and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 11 Jun 2023, ended IFK Goteborg 0–2 Sirius — a Sirius win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
IFK Goteborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sirius goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 46% versus Sirius 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 44% | Sirius 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.51 xG and Sirius 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 1.038 / defence 0.844 | Sirius attack 0.962 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.215. Data: built from IFK Goteborg's last 55 games and Sirius's last 55.
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 49% | Draw 26% | Sirius 25%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 2.02 | Draw 3.86 | Sirius 4.05. IFK Goteborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IFK Goteborg at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Goteborg if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: IFK Goteborg 50% (last 10 home games) | Sirius 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 26 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 49% | Draw 26% | Sirius 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG IFK Goteborg 1.51 / Sirius 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 1.038 / def 0.844 | Sirius attack 0.962 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Sirius xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ IFK Goteborg vs Sirius FAQs
What time does IFK Goteborg vs Sirius kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs Sirius kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs Sirius?
IFK Goteborg 0 - 1 Sirius.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs Sirius part of?
IFK Goteborg vs Sirius is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 26) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 49% chance of winning, Sirius a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both IFK Goteborg and Sirius will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will IFK Goteborg vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
IFK Goteborg's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Sirius's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — Sirius's attack (0.96x) against IFK Goteborg's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from IFK Goteborg's last 55 games and Sirius's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
49%
2.02
26%
3.86
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.50
0.99
Sirius xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
5%
18.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.3 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ IFK Goteborg vs Sirius Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 0.99 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
IFK Goteborg come into this having played 55 games, going 21W 12D 22L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-D.
On the other side, Sirius sit at 1.16 PPG from 55 outings (17W 13D 25L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for IFK Goteborg against 1.16 for Sirius. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
IFK Goteborg's home form reads 12W 6D 9L across their last 27 home games, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Sirius have taken 1.04 points per game from their last 27 away games (6W 10D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IFK Goteborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.27 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Blended
Sirius
Blended
IFK Goteborg (Home) vs Sirius (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
IFK Goteborg
Blended
Sirius
Blended
❓ IFK Goteborg vs Sirius Form FAQs
What form are IFK Goteborg and Sirius in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 21W 12D 22L in their last 55 games (1.36 PPG), while Sirius have gone 17W 13D 25L in their last 55 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or Sirius away?
IFK Goteborg's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.56 PPG; Sirius away: 1.04 PPG.
Have IFK Goteborg or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Goteborg have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Sirius in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between IFK Goteborg and Sirius, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was on 26 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won Sirius 4-1 IFK Goteborg on 26 Jul 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Goteborg have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sirius — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
IFK Goteborg
3
Draws
3
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ IFK Goteborg vs Sirius H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Sirius?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, IFK Goteborg have won 4, Sirius have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and Sirius last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 July 2026: Sirius 4-1 IFK Goteborg.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and Sirius?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 48%, Sirius 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (IFK Goteborg) and 52% (Sirius).
On the defensive side: IFK Goteborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sirius in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ IFK Goteborg vs Sirius Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in IFK Goteborg and Sirius matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of IFK Goteborg's recent matches and 44% of Sirius's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are IFK Goteborg and Sirius matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 52% of Sirius's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and Sirius matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of IFK Goteborg's recent matches and 67% of Sirius's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sirius defy the odds to beat IFK Goteborg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat IFK Goteborg 0-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 26, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.51 xG and Sirius 0.99 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. IFK Goteborg fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 1.04 / defence 0.84 against Sirius attack 0.96 / defence 1.02, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 49% | Draw 26% | Sirius 25%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Sirius win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 44%, Sirius 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sirius's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Goteborg 1.36 PPG, Sirius 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sirius win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward. Sirius (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.