IFK Goteborg 1-2 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg meet at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 July 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
IFK Goteborg's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, IFK Goteborg have posted 4W 2D 4L at Gamla Ullevi — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
IF Elfsborg (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W L D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to IF Elfsborg, who have claimed 4 wins from 6 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2024, ended 1–3 with IF Elfsborg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. IF Elfsborg have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
IFK Goteborg half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
IF Elfsborg half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 52% versus IF Elfsborg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 43% | IF Elfsborg 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.10 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 1.005 / defence 0.971 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.941 / defence 0.829. League average goals — home 1.319 / away 1.245. Data: 44 IFK Goteborg games / 44 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 34% | Draw 29% | IF Elfsborg 36%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | IF Elfsborg 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Elfsborg at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: IFK Goteborg 60% | IF Elfsborg 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Jul 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 34% | Draw 29% | IF Elfsborg 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG IFK Goteborg 1.10 / IF Elfsborg 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 1.005 / def 0.971 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.941 / def 0.829 | league avg home 1.319 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.14
IF Elfsborg xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 12 July 2025 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg?
IFK Goteborg 1 - 2 IF Elfsborg.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg part of?
IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 34% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg?
Record (6 meetings): IFK Goteborg 1W | Draws 1 | IF Elfsborg 4W.
What form are IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
IFK Goteborg's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against IF Elfsborg's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. Flip it around — IF Elfsborg's attack (0.94x) against IFK Goteborg's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
34%
2.90
29%
3.44
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.24
1.14
IF Elfsborg xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
11%
9.06
12%
8.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 12.2 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.14 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
IFK Goteborg's recent record stands at 14W 11D 19L from 44 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg, meanwhile, have gone 21W 8D 15L across 44 games — 1.61 PPG, with W-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours IF Elfsborg by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over IFK Goteborg heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, IFK Goteborg have managed 6W 7D 8L from 21 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IF Elfsborg's away record stands at 7W 4D 10L across 21 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of IF Elfsborg's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.75 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 14W 11D 19L in their last 44 games (1.20 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 21W 8D 15L in their last 44 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or IF Elfsborg away?
IFK Goteborg's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.19 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.19 PPG.
Have IFK Goteborg or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Goteborg have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Goteborg have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IF Elfsborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
IFK Goteborg
2
Draws
7
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 1, IF Elfsborg have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when IFK Goteborg 1-1 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IFK Goteborg see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 52%, IF Elfsborg 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (IFK Goteborg) and 52% (IF Elfsborg).
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of IFK Goteborg's recent matches and 52% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 52% of IF Elfsborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IF Elfsborg edge out IFK Goteborg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat IFK Goteborg 1-2 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 15, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.10 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.14 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. IF Elfsborg outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 1.00 / defence 0.97 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.94 / defence 0.83, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 34% | Draw 29% | IF Elfsborg 36%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 43%, IF Elfsborg 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.20. Form held, and they took the win. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.