IF Elfsborg 3-1 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 59% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as IF Elfsborg face IFK Goteborg.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Borås Arena plays host to IF Elfsborg versus IFK Goteborg in Allsvenskan (matchday 20). Kick-off: Sunday 25 August 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
IF Elfsborg (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
IF Elfsborg at home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — IF Elfsborg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
IFK Goteborg have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, IFK Goteborg have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for IF Elfsborg, 1.30 for IFK Goteborg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, IF Elfsborg edge it 3 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 1 Jun 2024, ended IF Elfsborg 0–1 IFK Goteborg — a IFK Goteborg win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
IF Elfsborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
IFK Goteborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 49% versus IFK Goteborg 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 61% | IFK Goteborg 39%). Note also that IFK Goteborg surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while IF Elfsborg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.98 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.275 / defence 0.841 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.883 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.383. IF Elfsborg carry an above-average attack rating of 1.275 — their 1.98 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from IF Elfsborg's last 49 games and IFK Goteborg's last 49.
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 59% | Draw 21% | IFK Goteborg 19%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 1.68 | Draw 4.66 | IFK Goteborg 5.23. The model has a clear lean to IF Elfsborg (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IF Elfsborg as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (IF Elfsborg's last 10 home games and IFK Goteborg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: IF Elfsborg 70% (last 10 home games) | IFK Goteborg 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 20 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 25 August 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 59% | Draw 21% | IFK Goteborg 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG IF Elfsborg 1.98 / IFK Goteborg 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.275 / def 0.841 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.883 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.622 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.03
IFK Goteborg xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg FAQs
What time does IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 25 August 2024 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg?
IF Elfsborg 3 - 1 IFK Goteborg.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg part of?
IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 20) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 59% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates IF Elfsborg's attack at 1.27x the league average against IFK Goteborg's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IFK Goteborg's attack (0.88x) against IF Elfsborg's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from IF Elfsborg's last 49 games and IFK Goteborg's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
59%
1.68
21%
4.66
19%
5.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
3.00
1.03
IFK Goteborg xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
5.23
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
14%
7.21
Win to Nil
21%
4.70
3%
37.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.8 | 10.1 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.03 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 49 outings, IF Elfsborg have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 29W 6D 14L record — W-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
IFK Goteborg's form line: 13W 16D 20L from 49 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-D.
Put side by side, IF Elfsborg are the form team by 0.78 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against IFK Goteborg.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, IF Elfsborg have posted 2.29 PPG from their last 24 home games (17W 4D 3L).
On the road, IFK Goteborg have gone 6W 8D 10L from their last 24 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.08 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Blended
IFK Goteborg
Blended
IF Elfsborg (Home) vs IFK Goteborg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
IF Elfsborg
Blended
IFK Goteborg
Blended
❓ IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg Form FAQs
What form are IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 29W 6D 14L in their last 49 games (1.90 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 13W 16D 20L in their last 49 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or IFK Goteborg away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 2.29 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.08 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or IFK Goteborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, IFK Goteborg in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Elfsborg have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against IFK Goteborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
IF Elfsborg
2
Draws
1
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, IF Elfsborg have won 7, IFK Goteborg have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: IFK Goteborg 1-1 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 54%, IFK Goteborg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (IF Elfsborg) and 46% (IFK Goteborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; IFK Goteborg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 50% of IFK Goteborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 46% of IFK Goteborg's.
Do IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 62% of IFK Goteborg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IF Elfsborg cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over IFK Goteborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat IFK Goteborg 3-1 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.98 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.03 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. IF Elfsborg beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.27 / defence 0.84 against IFK Goteborg attack 0.88 / defence 0.95, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 59% | Draw 21% | IFK Goteborg 19%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 61%, IFK Goteborg 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.