Halmstad 0-1 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Halmstad at 55%, yet in-form Vasteras SK FK provide a compelling counter-argument — this Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 20 as Halmstad welcome Vasteras SK FK to Örjans Vall. Kick-off is set for Monday 26 August 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Halmstad stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Halmstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Halmstad at Örjans Vall this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Örjans Vall. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Halmstad are significantly better at Örjans Vall than their overall form suggests.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Vasteras SK FK have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vasteras SK FK have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Vasteras SK FK's 1.20 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Halmstad's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Halmstad's 30% rate and Vasteras SK FK's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Halmstad, 0 for Vasteras SK FK and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Halmstad winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Halmstad trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Vasteras SK FK trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Halmstad 45% versus Vasteras SK FK 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Halmstad 53% | Vasteras SK FK 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Halmstad 1.55 xG and Vasteras SK FK 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Halmstad attack 0.901 / defence 0.837 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.709 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.608 / away 1.359. Data: 49 Halmstad games / 19 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Halmstad 55% | Draw 26% | Vasteras SK FK 19%. Fair-value odds: Halmstad 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Vasteras SK FK 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Halmstad (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Halmstad are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vasteras SK FK (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Halmstad 30% | Vasteras SK FK 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Örjans Vall • Kick-off: Monday 26 Aug 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Halmstad 55% | Draw 26% | Vasteras SK FK 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 44% | xG Halmstad 1.55 / Vasteras SK FK 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Halmstad attack 0.901 / def 0.837 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.709 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.608 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Halmstad (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Halmstad xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Vasteras SK FK xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 26 August 2024 at Örjans Vall.
What was the final score in Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK?
Halmstad 0 - 1 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Örjans Vall.
What competition is Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Halmstad a 55% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Halmstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Halmstad and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Halmstad and Vasteras SK FK?
Record (3 meetings): Halmstad 1W | Draws 2 | Vasteras SK FK 0W.
What form are Halmstad and Vasteras SK FK in?
Halmstad (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Halmstad's attack rating (0.90) and Vasteras SK FK's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vasteras SK FK's attack versus Halmstad's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 2-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Halmstad Win
55%
1.82
26%
3.90
19%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Halmstad xG
Total xG
2.35
0.81
Vasteras SK FK xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
5.13
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
25%
4.08
4%
24.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 11.9 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Halmstad and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Halmstad and 0.81 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Halmstad's recent record stands at 16W 9D 24L from 49 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Halmstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vasteras SK FK, meanwhile, have gone 23W 9D 17L across 49 games — 1.59 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Vasteras SK FK by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Halmstad heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Halmstad have managed 10W 5D 9L from 24 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vasteras SK FK's away record stands at 10W 4D 10L across 24 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Halmstad are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.31 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Halmstad
Blended
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Halmstad and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
Halmstad have gone 16W 9D 24L in their last 49 games (1.16 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 23W 9D 17L in their last 49 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Halmstad at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
Halmstad's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Halmstad at home: 1.46 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Halmstad or Vasteras SK FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Halmstad have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Vasteras SK FK in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Vasteras SK FK have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Halmstad's record when hosting Vasteras SK FK specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Halmstad
2
Draws
2
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Halmstad and Vasteras SK FK?
From 5 meetings on record, Halmstad have won 1, Vasteras SK FK have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Halmstad and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Halmstad 1-3 Vasteras SK FK.
Who has won more matches between Halmstad and Vasteras SK FK?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Halmstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Vasteras SK FK see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Halmstad 33%, Vasteras SK FK 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Halmstad) and 54% (Vasteras SK FK).
On the defensive side: Halmstad keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Halmstad have failed to score in 38% of games; Vasteras SK FK in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Halmstad home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Halmstad play Vasteras SK FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Halmstad's recent matches and 46% of Vasteras SK FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Halmstad's recent games and 54% of Vasteras SK FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Halmstad and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
Halmstad have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vasteras SK FK defy the odds to beat Halmstad 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK beat Halmstad 0-1 at Örjans Vall, Regular Season - 20, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Halmstad 1.55 xG and Vasteras SK FK 0.81 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Halmstad fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Halmstad attack 0.90 / defence 0.84 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.71 / defence 1.07, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Halmstad 55% | Draw 26% | Vasteras SK FK 19%, with Halmstad to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Vasteras SK FK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Halmstad 53%, Vasteras SK FK 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Halmstad's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Vasteras SK FK arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win. Halmstad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.