Gais 0-1 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gais at 42%, yet in-form AIK Stockholm provide a compelling counter-argument — this Gais vs AIK Stockholm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gais host AIK Stockholm at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 31 March 2025 at 18:10 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gais stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Gais's home record at Gamla Ullevi: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gamla Ullevi. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, AIK Stockholm have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
AIK Stockholm away from home this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour AIK Stockholm — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Gais, 0 for AIK Stockholm and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Jul 2024, ended 1–0 with Gais winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Gais in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
AIK Stockholm in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gais 43% versus AIK Stockholm 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gais 55% | AIK Stockholm 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 1.42 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 1.001 / defence 0.893 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.955 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.399. Data: 30 Gais games / 30 AIK Stockholm games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Gais 42% | Draw 26% | AIK Stockholm 32%. Fair-value odds: Gais 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | AIK Stockholm 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gais at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form AIK Stockholm (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gais offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Gais 30% | AIK Stockholm 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Monday 31 Mar 2025, 18:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 42% | Draw 26% | AIK Stockholm 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Gais 1.42 / AIK Stockholm 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 1.001 / def 0.893 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.955 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Gais (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Gais xG
Expected Goals
1.19
AIK Stockholm xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Gais vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 18:10 on Monday 31 March 2025 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs AIK Stockholm?
Gais 0 - 1 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Gais vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Gais vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 42% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Gais and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and AIK Stockholm?
Record (2 meetings): Gais 2W | Draws 0 | AIK Stockholm 0W.
What form are Gais and AIK Stockholm in?
Gais (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Gais's attack at 1.00x the league average against AIK Stockholm's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus Gais's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
42%
2.37
26%
3.83
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Gais xG
Total xG
2.61
1.19
AIK Stockholm xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
13%
7.83
8%
13.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.4 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Gais and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Gais and 1.19 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gais come into this having played 60 games, going 31W 12D 17L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-W.
On the other side, AIK Stockholm sit at 1.50 PPG from 60 outings (26W 12D 22L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gais on 1.75 PPG, AIK Stockholm on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Gais's home form reads 18W 6D 6L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, AIK Stockholm have taken 1.17 points per game from 30 outings (10W 5D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gais come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gais are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.33 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Gais have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Current Season
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gais and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Gais have gone 31W 12D 17L in their last 60 games (1.75 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 26W 12D 22L in their last 60 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gais at home or AIK Stockholm away?
Gais's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gais at home: 2.00 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Gais or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gais have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Gais's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Gais
1
Draws
2
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and AIK Stockholm?
From 5 meetings on record, Gais have won 2, AIK Stockholm have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gais and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when AIK Stockholm 2-0 Gais.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gais 40%, AIK Stockholm 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Gais) and 50% (AIK Stockholm).
On the defensive side: Gais keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Gais have failed to score in 30% of games; AIK Stockholm in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gais play AIK Stockholm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Gais's recent matches and 53% of AIK Stockholm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gais vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Gais's recent games and 50% of AIK Stockholm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gais and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
Gais have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AIK Stockholm defy the odds to beat Gais 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat Gais 0-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 1, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.42 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.19 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gais fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 1.00 / defence 0.89 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.95 / defence 0.94, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 42% | Draw 26% | AIK Stockholm 32%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual AIK Stockholm win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 55%, AIK Stockholm 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gais's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gais 1.75 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. Gais (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.