Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Degerfors IF at 54%, yet in-form Vasteras SK FK provide a compelling counter-argument — this Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 26 as Degerfors IF welcome Vasteras SK FK to Stora Valla. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 28 October 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Degerfors IF have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF's home record at Stora Valla: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vasteras SK FK stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasteras SK FK's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Vasteras SK FK's 1.70 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Degerfors IF's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Degerfors IF have won 0, Vasteras SK FK 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jul 2026, ended 0–2 with Vasteras SK FK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Degerfors IF in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Vasteras SK FK in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 48% versus Vasteras SK FK 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 52% | Vasteras SK FK 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.79 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.891 / defence 0.885 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.923 / defence 1.289. League average goals — home 1.559 / away 1.284. Vasteras SK FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.289 — this is suppressing Degerfors IF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Degerfors IF games / 20 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 54% | Draw 25% | Vasteras SK FK 21%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Vasteras SK FK 4.76. Degerfors IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Degerfors IF are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vasteras SK FK (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Degerfors IF 40% | Vasteras SK FK 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 54% | Draw 25% | Vasteras SK FK 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Degerfors IF 1.79 / Vasteras SK FK 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.891 / def 0.885 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.923 / def 1.289 | league avg home 1.559 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Vasteras SK FK xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Wednesday 28 October 2026 at Stora Valla.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 54% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Degerfors IF and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Vasteras SK FK?
Record (1 meetings): Degerfors IF 0W | Draws 0 | Vasteras SK FK 1W.
What form are Degerfors IF and Vasteras SK FK in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Degerfors IF's attack at 0.89x the league average against Vasteras SK FK's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vasteras SK FK's attack versus Degerfors IF's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
54%
1.86
25%
4.01
21%
4.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.84
1.05
Vasteras SK FK xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
4.72
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
17%
6.00
Win to Nil
19%
5.30
4%
28.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.0 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.05 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Degerfors IF come into this having played 50 games, going 13W 10D 27L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vasteras SK FK sit at 1.88 PPG from 50 outings (28W 10D 12L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vasteras SK FK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Degerfors IF's home form reads 4W 7D 14L across 25 games on their own ground, a 0.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Vasteras SK FK have taken 1.76 points per game from 25 outings (14W 2D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasteras SK FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.80 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Vasteras SK FK in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 13W 10D 27L in their last 50 games (0.98 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 28W 10D 12L in their last 50 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
Vasteras SK FK's away record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 0.76 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.76 PPG.
Have Degerfors IF or Vasteras SK FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Degerfors IF have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Vasteras SK FK in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Degerfors IF and Vasteras SK FK runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Degerfors IF
0
Draws
1
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Vasteras SK FK?
From 1 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 0, Vasteras SK FK have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Vasteras SK FK 2-0 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Vasteras SK FK?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 40%, Vasteras SK FK 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Degerfors IF) and 72% (Vasteras SK FK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 16% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF have failed to score in 48% of games; Vasteras SK FK in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Vasteras SK FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 52% of Vasteras SK FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Degerfors IF's matches and 72% of Vasteras SK FK's.
Do Degerfors IF and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.