Degerfors IF 0-1 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Degerfors IF at 38%, yet in-form IF Elfsborg provide a compelling counter-argument — this Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Degerfors IF and IF Elfsborg meet at Stora Valla in Allsvenskan (matchday 4). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 April 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Degerfors IF's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Degerfors IF's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
IF Elfsborg have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. IF Elfsborg are 0.70 PPG clear of Degerfors IF over their recent games (1.30 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Degerfors IF's last 10 home games and IF Elfsborg's last 10 away games) — Degerfors IF have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, IF Elfsborg in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head sample leans to IF Elfsborg, who have 4 wins from 6 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 5 Nov 2023, ended Degerfors IF 2–2 IF Elfsborg — a draw.
The H2H data backs the away side. IF Elfsborg have won 4 of 6 H2H matches, and at 3.5 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading
Degerfors IF half-time and goal-timing data (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
IF Elfsborg half-time and goal-timing data (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Degerfors IF 60% and IF Elfsborg 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Degerfors IF 63% | IF Elfsborg 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.24 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.851 / defence 0.985 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.004 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.162. Data: built from Degerfors IF's last 3 games and IF Elfsborg's last 33. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 38% | Draw 28% | IF Elfsborg 34%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 2.60 | Draw 3.61 | IF Elfsborg 2.95. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Degerfors IF are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form IF Elfsborg (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — low conviction — though recent form (Degerfors IF's last 10 home games and IF Elfsborg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 6 H2H matches point the other way.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Degerfors IF 60% (last 10 home games) | IF Elfsborg 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
The Poisson model's sample (Degerfors IF 3 games, IF Elfsborg 33) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 4 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 19 April 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 38% | Draw 28% | IF Elfsborg 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Degerfors IF 1.24 / IF Elfsborg 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.851 / def 0.985 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.004 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.15
IF Elfsborg xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg FAQs
What time does Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 19 April 2025 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Degerfors IF 0 - 1 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 4) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 38% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Degerfors IF and IF Elfsborg will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Degerfors IF's attack at 0.85x the league average against IF Elfsborg's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IF Elfsborg's attack (1.00x) against Degerfors IF's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from Degerfors IF's last 3 games and IF Elfsborg's last 33, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
38%
2.60
28%
3.61
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.39
1.15
IF Elfsborg xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
12%
8.21
10%
10.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.5 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.1 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.15 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Degerfors IF come into this having played 30 games, going 7W 5D 18L for 0.87 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-L.
On the other side, IF Elfsborg sit at 1.50 PPG from 30 outings (13W 6D 11L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five.
IF Elfsborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Degerfors IF's home form reads 5W 2D 8L across their last 15 home games, a 1.13 PPG return.
Away from home, IF Elfsborg have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 15 away games (4W 3D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of IF Elfsborg's recent record.
Attack vs Defence
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.73 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; IF Elfsborg in 63%.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Pre-Season
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
Degerfors IF (Home) vs IF Elfsborg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Degerfors IF
Pre-Season
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
❓ Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg Form FAQs
What form are Degerfors IF and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 7W 5D 18L in their last 30 games (0.87 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 13W 6D 11L in their last 30 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or IF Elfsborg away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.13 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Degerfors IF and IF Elfsborg, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
IF Elfsborg have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IF Elfsborg won Degerfors IF 0-6 IF Elfsborg on 1 May 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Degerfors IF have gone 0W 0D 5L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against IF Elfsborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Degerfors IF
2
Draws
7
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and IF Elfsborg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Degerfors IF have won 1, IF Elfsborg have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: IF Elfsborg 2-0 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and IF Elfsborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 67%, IF Elfsborg 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Degerfors IF and 60% for IF Elfsborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Degerfors IF vs IF Elfsborg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Degerfors IF and IF Elfsborg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Degerfors IF's games and 60% of IF Elfsborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Degerfors IF and IF Elfsborg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Degerfors IF's matches and 60% of IF Elfsborg's.
Do Degerfors IF and IF Elfsborg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 73% of IF Elfsborg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IF Elfsborg defy the odds to beat Degerfors IF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Degerfors IF 0-1 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 4, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.24 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.15 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Degerfors IF fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.85 / defence 0.98 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.00 / defence 1.10, drawn from 3/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 38% | Draw 28% | IF Elfsborg 34%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual IF Elfsborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 63%, IF Elfsborg 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.87. That form edge translated into the three points. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.