AIK Stockholm 1-0 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hammarby FF at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AIK Stockholm and Hammarby FF meet at Strawberry Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 29 September 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
AIK Stockholm's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AIK Stockholm's home record at Strawberry Arena: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Hammarby FF have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: D W D D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.20 for AIK Stockholm, 2.20 for Hammarby FF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for AIK Stockholm, 3 for Hammarby FF and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2024, ended 1–2 with Hammarby FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
AIK Stockholm goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Hammarby FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 50% versus Hammarby FF 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 48% | Hammarby FF 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 0.88 xG and Hammarby FF 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 0.960 / defence 0.820 | Hammarby FF attack 1.065 / defence 0.598. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.283. Hammarby FF's defence strength of 0.598 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 54 AIK Stockholm games / 54 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 29% | Draw 31% | Hammarby FF 41%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 3.45 | Draw 3.23 | Hammarby FF 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hammarby FF as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.00 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: AIK Stockholm 50% | Hammarby FF 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Strawberry Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 29% | Draw 31% | Hammarby FF 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG AIK Stockholm 0.88 / Hammarby FF 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 0.960 / def 0.820 | Hammarby FF attack 1.065 / def 0.598 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Hammarby FF xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Strawberry Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF?
AIK Stockholm 1 - 0 Hammarby FF.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Strawberry Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF part of?
AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 29% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both AIK Stockholm and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Hammarby FF?
Record (6 meetings): AIK Stockholm 1W | Draws 2 | Hammarby FF 3W.
What form are AIK Stockholm and Hammarby FF in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Hammarby FF (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
AIK Stockholm's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Hammarby FF's defensive record (0.60x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. Flip it around — Hammarby FF's attack (1.06x) against AIK Stockholm's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
29%
3.50
31%
3.28
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
2.00
1.12
Hammarby FF xG
3.50
29%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
9%
10.72
17%
5.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 15.1 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 1.12 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AIK Stockholm come into this having played 54 games, going 22W 12D 20L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hammarby FF sit at 1.63 PPG from 54 outings (24W 16D 14L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for AIK Stockholm against 1.63 for Hammarby FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
AIK Stockholm's home form reads 13W 7D 6L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Hammarby FF have taken 1.35 points per game from 26 outings (9W 8D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AIK Stockholm come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.50 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Hammarby FF in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AIK Stockholm and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 22W 12D 20L in their last 54 games (1.44 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 24W 16D 14L in their last 54 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or Hammarby FF away?
AIK Stockholm's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 1.77 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.35 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AIK Stockholm have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hammarby FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
AIK Stockholm
3
Draws
4
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 3, Hammarby FF have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Hammarby FF 1-2 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Hammarby FF see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 46%, Hammarby FF 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (AIK Stockholm) and 42% (Hammarby FF).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Hammarby FF in 46%; Hammarby FF in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AIK Stockholm play Hammarby FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 31% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 42% of Hammarby FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AIK Stockholm and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
AIK Stockholm have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AIK Stockholm defy the odds to beat Hammarby FF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat Hammarby FF 1-0 at Strawberry Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 0.88 xG and Hammarby FF 1.12 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hammarby FF landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 0.96 / defence 0.82 against Hammarby FF attack 1.06 / defence 0.60, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 29% | Draw 31% | Hammarby FF 41%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual AIK Stockholm win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 48%, Hammarby FF 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AIK Stockholm 1.44 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.