Osasuna vs Real Sociedad – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Real Sociedad (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Osasuna face Real Sociedad.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 35 as Osasuna welcome Real Sociedad to Estadio El Sadar. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 May 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Osasuna have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Estadio El Sadar this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Real Sociedad stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Real Sociedad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Real Sociedad have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Real Sociedad are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Osasuna register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Real Sociedad in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Real Sociedad have the better historical record — 6 wins from 10 previous contests against 3 for Osasuna.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2026, ended 1–3 with Real Sociedad winning.
It is worth noting that Real Sociedad have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Osasuna trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Real Sociedad trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Osasuna 52% and Real Sociedad 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 48% | Real Sociedad 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.41 xG and Real Sociedad 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.734 / defence 0.867 | Real Sociedad attack 1.363 / defence 1.191. League average goals — home 1.610 / away 1.247. Osasuna's attack strength of 0.734 is below the league average — the 1.41 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Real Sociedad have an above-average attack strength of 1.363 — the away xG of 1.47 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Osasuna games / 49 Real Sociedad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 35% | Draw 27% | Real Sociedad 38%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Real Sociedad 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Real Sociedad at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Real Sociedad offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 60% | Real Sociedad 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Real Sociedad | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 35% | Draw 27% | Real Sociedad 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Osasuna 1.41 / Real Sociedad 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.734 / def 0.867 | Real Sociedad attack 1.363 / def 1.191 | league avg home 1.610 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Real Sociedad (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Real Sociedad xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Real Sociedad kick off?
Osasuna vs Real Sociedad is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Sunday 9 May 2027 at Estadio El Sadar.
Where is Osasuna vs Real Sociedad being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Real Sociedad part of?
Osasuna vs Real Sociedad is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Real Sociedad?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 35% chance of winning, Real Sociedad a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Real Sociedad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Real Sociedad?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Osasuna and Real Sociedad will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Real Sociedad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Real Sociedad?
Record (10 meetings): Osasuna 3W | Draws 1 | Real Sociedad 6W.
What form are Osasuna and Real Sociedad in?
Osasuna (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Real Sociedad (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Osasuna's attack rating (0.73) and Real Sociedad's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Real Sociedad's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Sociedad Win
35%
2.87
27%
3.65
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.88
1.47
Real Sociedad xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
23%
4.37
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
8%
12.54
9%
10.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.6 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Real Sociedad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Real Sociedad expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.47 for Real Sociedad, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Real Sociedad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Osasuna's recent record stands at 14W 11D 23L from 48 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Real Sociedad, meanwhile, have gone 17W 13D 18L across 48 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Real Sociedad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.10 PPG, Real Sociedad on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Osasuna have managed 11W 7D 6L from 24 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.10 PPG overall — Osasuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Real Sociedad's away record stands at 6W 7D 11L across 24 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Osasuna are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Real Sociedad are on 1.62 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Real Sociedad in 77%.
Last 48 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Real Sociedad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Real Sociedad in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 14W 11D 23L in their last 48 games (1.10 PPG), while Real Sociedad have gone 17W 13D 18L in their last 48 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Real Sociedad away?
Osasuna's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.67 PPG; Real Sociedad away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Osasuna and Real Sociedad runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Real Sociedad have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Osasuna's record when hosting Real Sociedad specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Osasuna
1
Draws
6
Real Sociedad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Real Sociedad?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 3, Real Sociedad have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Real Sociedad last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Real Sociedad 3-1 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Real Sociedad?
Real Sociedad have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Real Sociedad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Osasuna at 62%, Real Sociedad at 79%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Osasuna) and 54% (Real Sociedad).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Real Sociedad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Real Sociedad?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Osasuna's games and 79% of Real Sociedad's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osasuna vs Real Sociedad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Osasuna's recent games and 54% of Real Sociedad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Real Sociedad tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Real Sociedad in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.