Mallorca 3-1 Las Palmas – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Mallorca at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mallorca vs Las Palmas encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mallorca and Las Palmas meet at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix in La Liga, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 February 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Mallorca (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mallorca at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Las Palmas's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Las Palmas, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Las Palmas away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Mallorca against 1.10 for Las Palmas. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mallorca lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2024, ended 3–2 with Mallorca winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Mallorca half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Las Palmas half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 46% versus Las Palmas 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mallorca 33% | Las Palmas 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.24 xG and Las Palmas 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.784 / defence 1.013 | Las Palmas attack 0.982 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.169. Mallorca's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 61 Mallorca games / 61 Las Palmas games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 38% | Draw 28% | Las Palmas 34%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Las Palmas 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mallorca are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mallorca if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Mallorca 50% | Las Palmas 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Las Palmas | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Feb 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 38% | Draw 28% | Las Palmas 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Mallorca 1.24 / Las Palmas 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.784 / def 1.013 | Las Palmas attack 0.982 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Las Palmas xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Las Palmas kick off?
Mallorca vs Las Palmas kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 16 February 2025 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Las Palmas?
Mallorca 3 - 1 Las Palmas.
Where is Mallorca vs Las Palmas being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Las Palmas part of?
Mallorca vs Las Palmas is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Las Palmas?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 38% chance of winning, Las Palmas a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Las Palmas?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Mallorca and Las Palmas will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Las Palmas have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Las Palmas?
Record (3 meetings): Mallorca 2W | Draws 1 | Las Palmas 0W.
What form are Mallorca and Las Palmas in?
Mallorca (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Las Palmas (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Mallorca's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Las Palmas's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — Las Palmas's attack (0.98x) against Mallorca's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
38%
2.65
28%
3.57
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.40
1.16
Las Palmas xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
12%
8.48
10%
10.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.6 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.1 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Las Palmas?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Las Palmas expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Mallorca and 1.16 for Las Palmas, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Las Palmas?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mallorca's recent record stands at 17W 20D 24L from 61 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Las Palmas, meanwhile, have gone 16W 15D 30L across 61 games — 1.03 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Las Palmas is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Mallorca against 1.03 for Las Palmas. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Mallorca have managed 10W 12D 8L from 30 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Las Palmas's away record stands at 7W 5D 18L across 30 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mallorca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mallorca are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Las Palmas are on 1.00 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 61 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Las Palmas
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Las Palmas in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 17W 20D 24L in their last 61 games (1.16 PPG), while Las Palmas have gone 16W 15D 30L in their last 61 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Las Palmas away?
Mallorca's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.40 PPG; Las Palmas away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Mallorca have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mallorca have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Las Palmas — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Mallorca
1
Draws
0
Las Palmas
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Las Palmas?
From 4 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 3, Las Palmas have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Las Palmas last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when Mallorca 3-1 Las Palmas.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Las Palmas?
Mallorca have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Las Palmas are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 47%, Las Palmas 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Mallorca) and 43% (Las Palmas).
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Mallorca have failed to score in 33% of games; Las Palmas in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Las Palmas away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Las Palmas?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Mallorca's recent matches and 47% of Las Palmas's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Las Palmas usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Mallorca's recent games and 43% of Las Palmas's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Las Palmas tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Las Palmas in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mallorca cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Las Palmas.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Las Palmas 3-1 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 24, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.24 xG and Las Palmas 1.16 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Mallorca beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.78 / defence 1.01 against Las Palmas attack 0.98 / defence 1.12, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 38% | Draw 28% | Las Palmas 34%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 33%, Las Palmas 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Las Palmas's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.16 PPG, Las Palmas 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mallorca win broke the near-deadlock. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm. Las Palmas (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.