Mallorca 1-0 Girona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 34%, yet in-form Girona provide a compelling counter-argument — this Mallorca vs Girona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Girona travel to Estadi Mallorca Son Moix to take on Mallorca. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 March 2024, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Mallorca — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mallorca's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all La Liga games this season, Girona have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Girona have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Girona are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Mallorca register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Girona in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Mallorca, 2 for Girona and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 3–5 with Girona winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Mallorca in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Girona in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 42% versus Girona 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mallorca 31% | Girona 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.32 xG and Girona 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.860 / defence 0.960 | Girona attack 1.181 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.156. Data: 64 Mallorca games / 64 Girona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 34% | Draw 32% | Girona 34%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Girona 2.94. The draw (32%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 32% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mallorca 60% | Girona 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Mar 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 34% | Draw 32% | Girona 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Mallorca 1.32 / Girona 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.860 / def 0.960 | Girona attack 1.181 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Draw (32%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Girona xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Girona kick off?
Mallorca vs Girona kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 3 March 2024 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Girona?
Mallorca 1 - 0 Girona.
Where is Mallorca vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Girona part of?
Mallorca vs Girona is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 34% chance of winning, Girona a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Mallorca and Girona will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Girona?
Record (3 meetings): Mallorca 0W | Draws 1 | Girona 2W.
What form are Mallorca and Girona in?
Mallorca (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Girona (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Mallorca's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Girona's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Girona's attack versus Mallorca's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
34%
2.91
32%
3.15
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.63
1.31
Girona xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
9%
10.80
9%
11.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.5 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Mallorca and 1.31 for Girona, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Girona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mallorca's recent record stands at 18W 20D 26L from 64 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Girona, meanwhile, have gone 31W 15D 18L across 64 games — 1.69 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Girona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Girona by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mallorca heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Mallorca have managed 13W 12D 7L from 32 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Mallorca are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Girona's away record stands at 11W 10D 11L across 32 trips, a 1.34 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Mallorca are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 1.80 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Girona in 66%.
Last 64 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Girona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Girona in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 18W 20D 26L in their last 64 games (1.16 PPG), while Girona have gone 31W 15D 18L in their last 64 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Girona away?
Mallorca's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.59 PPG; Girona away: 1.34 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mallorca and Girona runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Mallorca's record when hosting Girona specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Mallorca
1
Draws
4
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Girona?
From 8 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 3, Girona have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Girona last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Girona 0-1 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Girona?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 44%, Girona 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Mallorca) and 56% (Girona).
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Mallorca have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Girona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Mallorca's games and 69% of Girona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mallorca vs Girona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Mallorca's recent games and 56% of Girona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Girona tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Girona in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mallorca edge out Girona 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Girona 1-0 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 27, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.32 xG and Girona 1.31 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Girona landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.86 / defence 0.96 against Girona attack 1.18 / defence 1.06, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 34% | Draw 32% | Girona 34%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 34%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 31%, Girona 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Girona's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Mallorca winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Girona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.