Girona 2-0 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Girona at 62% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Girona face Osasuna.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadi Municipal de Montilivi plays host to Girona versus Osasuna in La Liga (matchday 28). Kick-off: Saturday 9 March 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form
Girona (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Girona have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Girona are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Osasuna have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Osasuna have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Girona against 1.70 for Osasuna. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2023, ended Girona 4–2 Osasuna — a Girona win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Girona goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
Osasuna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 65% versus Osasuna 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 60% | Osasuna 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 2.10 xG and Osasuna 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 1.507 / defence 0.930 | Osasuna attack 0.939 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.112. Girona carry an above-average attack rating of 1.507 — their 2.10 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Girona's last 65 games and Osasuna's last 65.
Result probabilities: Girona 62% | Draw 24% | Osasuna 15%. Fair-value odds: Girona 1.62 | Draw 4.23 | Osasuna 6.77. The model has a clear lean to Girona (62%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Girona as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Girona's last 10 home games and Osasuna's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Girona 50% (last 10 home games) | Osasuna 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, matchday 28 | Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Saturday 9 March 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 62% | Draw 24% | Osasuna 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Girona 2.10 / Osasuna 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 1.507 / def 0.930 | Osasuna attack 0.939 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Girona (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Girona xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Osasuna xG
56%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Girona vs Osasuna FAQs
What time does Girona vs Osasuna kick off?
Girona vs Osasuna kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Osasuna?
Girona 2 - 0 Osasuna.
Where is Girona vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Osasuna part of?
Girona vs Osasuna is a La Liga fixture (matchday 28) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 62% chance of winning, Osasuna a 15% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Girona and Osasuna will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Girona vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Girona's attacking strength (1.51x league average) is weighed against Osasuna's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.10. Flip it around — Osasuna's attack (0.94x) against Girona's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from Girona's last 65 games and Osasuna's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
62%
1.62
24%
4.23
15%
6.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Girona xG
Total xG
3.07
0.97
Osasuna xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
6.77
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
12%
8.17
Win to Nil
23%
4.29
2%
55.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Girona vs Osasuna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Girona and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Girona and 0.97 for Osasuna, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Osasuna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Girona's recent record stands at 31W 15D 19L from 65 games, a 1.66 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Osasuna, meanwhile, have gone 25W 14D 26L across 65 games — 1.37 PPG, with L-W-W-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.66 PPG for Girona against 1.37 for Osasuna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Girona have managed 20W 5D 7L from their last 32 home games — 2.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Osasuna's away record stands at 8W 10D 14L across their last 32 away games, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Girona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Girona are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.05 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Girona have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
Girona (Home) vs Osasuna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Girona
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Girona vs Osasuna Form FAQs
What form are Girona and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 31W 15D 19L in their last 65 games (1.66 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 25W 14D 26L in their last 65 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Osasuna away?
Girona's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 2.03 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Girona or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Girona have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Osasuna in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 21 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Girona won Girona 4-0 Osasuna on 29 Aug 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Girona have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Osasuna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Girona
1
Draws
3
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Girona vs Osasuna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Osasuna?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Girona have won 4, Osasuna have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Girona and Osasuna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 March 2026: Osasuna 1-0 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Osasuna?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Girona see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Girona 62%, Osasuna 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Girona) and 34% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Osasuna in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Girona vs Osasuna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Girona and Osasuna matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Girona's games and 50% of Osasuna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Girona and Osasuna matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 66% of Girona's recent games and 34% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Girona and Osasuna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Girona's recent matches and 69% of Osasuna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Girona cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Osasuna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona beat Osasuna 2-0 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 28, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 2.10 xG and Osasuna 0.97 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Osasuna landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 1.51 / defence 0.93 against Osasuna attack 0.94 / defence 0.98, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 62% | Draw 24% | Osasuna 15%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 60%, Osasuna 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Osasuna's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Girona 1.66 PPG, Osasuna 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Girona win broke the near-deadlock. Girona (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Osasuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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