Leganes 2-5 Villarreal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Villarreal at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Leganes vs Villarreal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Municipal de Butarque plays host to Leganes versus Villarreal in La Liga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 22 December 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Leganes have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Leganes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Leganes have gone 3W 1D 4L this season (8 games, 1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 12% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Villarreal's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Villarreal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Villarreal's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Leganes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Villarreal goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Leganes 41% and Villarreal 82% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leganes 35% | Villarreal 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leganes 0.95 xG and Villarreal 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leganes attack 0.646 / defence 1.170 | Villarreal attack 1.052 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.162. Leganes's attack strength of 0.646 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 17 Leganes games / 55 Villarreal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leganes 25% | Draw 27% | Villarreal 48%. Fair-value odds: Leganes 4.00 | Draw 3.70 | Villarreal 2.08. Villarreal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Villarreal are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Villarreal if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Leganes 12% | Villarreal 70% BTTS from recent games.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leganes vs Villarreal | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de Butarque • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Dec 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leganes 25% | Draw 27% | Villarreal 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Leganes 0.95 / Villarreal 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Leganes attack 0.646 / def 1.170 | Villarreal attack 1.052 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Leganes xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Villarreal xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leganes vs Villarreal kick off?
Leganes vs Villarreal kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 22 December 2024 at Estadio Municipal de Butarque.
What was the final score in Leganes vs Villarreal?
Leganes 2 - 5 Villarreal.
Where is Leganes vs Villarreal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de Butarque.
What competition is Leganes vs Villarreal part of?
Leganes vs Villarreal is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Leganes vs Villarreal?
Our statistical model gives Leganes a 25% chance of winning, Villarreal a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leganes vs Villarreal?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Leganes and Villarreal will score (BTTS).
Will Leganes vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leganes and Villarreal?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Leganes and Villarreal in?
Leganes (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Villarreal (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Leganes's attacking strength (0.65x league average) is weighed against Villarreal's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. Flip it around — Villarreal's attack (1.05x) against Leganes's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 17/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
25%
3.99
27%
3.73
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Leganes xG
Total xG
2.38
1.43
Villarreal xG
3.99
25%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
24%
4.18
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
6%
16.70
19%
5.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 13.2 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leganes vs Villarreal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Leganes and Villarreal expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Leganes and 1.43 for Villarreal, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Leganes vs Villarreal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Leganes's recent record stands at 4W 6D 7L from 17 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Leganes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Villarreal, meanwhile, have gone 7W 6D 4L across 17 games — 1.59 PPG, with D-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Villarreal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Villarreal by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Leganes heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Leganes have managed 3W 1D 4L from 8 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Villarreal's away record stands at 4W 2D 2L across 8 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Villarreal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Leganes are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Villarreal are on 1.71 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal in 82%.
Last 17 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leganes
Blended
Villarreal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leganes and Villarreal in coming into this match?
Leganes have gone 4W 6D 7L in their last 17 games (1.06 PPG), while Villarreal have gone 7W 6D 4L in their last 17 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leganes at home or Villarreal away?
Villarreal's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leganes at home: 1.25 PPG; Villarreal away: 1.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Leganes
0
Draws
2
Villarreal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leganes and Villarreal?
From 2 meetings on record, Leganes have won 0, Villarreal have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Leganes and Villarreal last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2025, when Villarreal 3-0 Leganes.
Who has won more matches between Leganes and Villarreal?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Leganes see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leganes 12%, Villarreal 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Leganes) and 62% (Villarreal). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Leganes keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Leganes have failed to score in 62% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leganes home games / Villarreal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leganes play Villarreal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 12% of Leganes's recent matches and 75% of Villarreal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Leganes vs Villarreal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Leganes's matches and 62% of Villarreal's.
Do Leganes and Villarreal tend to score early?
Leganes have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, Villarreal in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Villarreal run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Leganes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal beat Leganes 2-5 at Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Regular Season - 18, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leganes 0.95 xG and Villarreal 1.43 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Leganes beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Villarreal outscored their 1.43 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leganes attack 0.65 / defence 1.17 against Villarreal attack 1.05 / defence 1.03, drawn from 17/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leganes 25% | Draw 27% | Villarreal 48%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leganes 35%, Villarreal 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leganes's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Villarreal's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.06. That form edge translated into the three points. Leganes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Villarreal (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.