Girona 3-0 Valladolid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Girona at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Girona vs Valladolid encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Girona host Valladolid at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi in La Liga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 20 December 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Girona — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Girona at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Across all La Liga games this season, Valladolid have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valladolid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valladolid's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 7L across 8 road games this term (0.38 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game.
Girona carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Girona have won 1, Valladolid 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2023, ended 0–1 with Valladolid winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Girona in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Valladolid in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 47% versus Valladolid 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 53% | Valladolid 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 2.65 xG and Valladolid 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 1.270 / defence 1.212 | Valladolid attack 0.772 / defence 1.476. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.153. Girona carry an above-average attack strength of 1.270 — their λ of 2.65 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Valladolid bring a strong defensive rating of 1.476 — this is suppressing Girona's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Girona games / 17 Valladolid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Girona 71% | Draw 16% | Valladolid 13%. Fair-value odds: Girona 1.41 | Draw 6.25 | Valladolid 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Girona (71%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.73. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.73 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.65 / 1.08) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Girona as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral: Girona 40% | Valladolid 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Valladolid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Friday 20 Dec 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 71% | Draw 16% | Valladolid 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 61% | xG Girona 2.65 / Valladolid 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 1.270 / def 1.212 | Valladolid attack 0.772 / def 1.476 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Girona (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.65
Girona xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Valladolid xG
61%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Girona vs Valladolid kick off?
Girona vs Valladolid kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 20 December 2024 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Valladolid?
Girona 3 - 0 Valladolid.
Where is Girona vs Valladolid being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Valladolid part of?
Girona vs Valladolid is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Valladolid?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 71% chance of winning, Valladolid a 13% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Valladolid?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Girona and Valladolid will score (BTTS).
Will Girona vs Valladolid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Valladolid?
Record (2 meetings): Girona 1W | Draws 0 | Valladolid 1W.
What form are Girona and Valladolid in?
Girona (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Valladolid (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Girona's attack rating (1.27) and Valladolid's defence rating (1.48), the model arrives at 2.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Valladolid's attack versus Girona's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.4%), 3-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
71%
1.41
16%
6.25
13%
7.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.65
Girona xG
Total xG
3.73
1.08
Valladolid xG
1.41
71%
Home win
6.25
16%
Draw
7.65
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
7%
14.22
Win to Nil
24%
4.14
1%
108.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Valladolid?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Girona and Valladolid expected to score?
The model projects 2.65 expected goals for Girona and 1.08 for Valladolid, a combined total of 3.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Valladolid?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Girona come into this having played 17 games, going 6W 4D 7L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-L. The sample for Girona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Valladolid sit at 0.71 PPG from 17 outings (3W 3D 11L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Valladolid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Girona carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Valladolid — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Girona's home form reads 4W 1D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Valladolid have taken 0.38 points per game from 8 outings (1W 0D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Girona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Girona are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Valladolid are on 0.71 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 17 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Blended
Valladolid
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Girona and Valladolid in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 6W 4D 7L in their last 17 games (1.29 PPG), while Valladolid have gone 3W 3D 11L in their last 17 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Valladolid away?
Girona's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 1.62 PPG; Valladolid away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Girona and Valladolid runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Girona go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Dec 2024, when Girona won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Girona's record when hosting Valladolid specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Girona
0
Draws
1
Valladolid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Valladolid?
From 4 meetings on record, Girona have won 3, Valladolid have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Girona and Valladolid last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2025, when Valladolid 0-1 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Valladolid?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Valladolid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Girona 50%, Valladolid 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Girona and 75% for Valladolid. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Girona have failed to score in 38% of games; Valladolid in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Valladolid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Girona play Valladolid?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Girona's recent matches and 50% of Valladolid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Girona vs Valladolid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Girona's matches and 75% of Valladolid's.
Do Girona and Valladolid tend to score early?
Girona have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Valladolid in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Girona run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Valladolid.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona beat Valladolid 3-0 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 18, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 2.65 xG and Valladolid 1.08 xG, a combined 3.73. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Valladolid landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 1.27 / defence 1.21 against Valladolid attack 0.77 / defence 1.48, drawn from 55/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 71% | Draw 16% | Valladolid 13%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 71%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 53%, Valladolid 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Valladolid's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.71. Form held, and they took the win. Girona (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.