Las Palmas 2-2 Real Betis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Real Betis at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Las Palmas vs Real Betis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Las Palmas host Real Betis at Estadio de Gran Canaria in La Liga (matchday 36). Kick-off is Thursday 16 May 2024 at 19:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Las Palmas stand at 0W 2D 8L — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Las Palmas's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — Las Palmas are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Real Betis — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Real Betis's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Real Betis are 1.40 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Las Palmas, 1 for Real Betis and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 26 Nov 2023, ended Las Palmas 0–1 Real Betis — a Real Betis win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Las Palmas in-play and half-time data (last 35 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Real Betis in-play and half-time data (last 35 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Las Palmas 37% versus Real Betis 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Las Palmas 29% | Real Betis 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Las Palmas 0.86 xG and Real Betis 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Las Palmas attack 0.648 / defence 1.129 | Real Betis attack 1.107 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.107. Las Palmas's attack rating of 0.648 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.86. Data: built from Las Palmas's last 35 games and Real Betis's last 73.
Result probabilities: Las Palmas 23% | Draw 28% | Real Betis 49%. Fair-value odds: Las Palmas 4.28 | Draw 3.63 | Real Betis 2.04. Real Betis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Real Betis are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Real Betis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Las Palmas's last 10 home games and Real Betis's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Las Palmas 40% (last 10 home games) | Real Betis 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Las Palmas vs Real Betis | Competition: La Liga, matchday 36 | Venue: Estadio de Gran Canaria • Kick-off: Thursday 16 May 2024 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Las Palmas 23% | Draw 28% | Real Betis 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Las Palmas 0.86 / Real Betis 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Las Palmas attack 0.648 / def 1.129 | Real Betis attack 1.107 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.107 • Poisson stance: Real Betis (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Las Palmas xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Real Betis xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Las Palmas vs Real Betis FAQs
What time does Las Palmas vs Real Betis kick off?
Las Palmas vs Real Betis kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Thursday 16 May 2024 at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What was the final score in Las Palmas vs Real Betis?
Las Palmas 2 - 2 Real Betis.
Where is Las Palmas vs Real Betis being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What competition is Las Palmas vs Real Betis part of?
Las Palmas vs Real Betis is a La Liga fixture (matchday 36) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Las Palmas vs Real Betis?
Our statistical model gives Las Palmas a 23% chance of winning, Real Betis a 49% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Real Betis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Las Palmas vs Real Betis?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Las Palmas and Real Betis will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Las Palmas vs Real Betis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Las Palmas's attack rating (0.65) and Real Betis's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 0.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Real Betis's attack versus Las Palmas's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Las Palmas's last 35 games and Real Betis's last 73 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Betis Win
23%
4.28
28%
3.63
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Las Palmas xG
Total xG
2.25
1.38
Real Betis xG
4.28
23%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
6%
17.08
21%
4.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 14.7 | 10.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Las Palmas vs Real Betis Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Las Palmas vs Real Betis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Las Palmas and Real Betis expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Las Palmas and 1.38 for Real Betis, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Las Palmas vs Real Betis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Las Palmas's recent record stands at 10W 7D 18L from 35 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Real Betis, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 8L across 35 games — 1.57 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Real Betis by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Las Palmas heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Las Palmas have managed 6W 4D 7L from their last 17 home games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Real Betis's away record stands at 5W 6D 6L across their last 17 away games, a 1.24 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Las Palmas are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Real Betis are on 1.31 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Real Betis in 60%.
Last 35 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Las Palmas
Current Season
Real Betis
Current Season
Las Palmas (Home) vs Real Betis (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Las Palmas
Current Season
Real Betis
Current Season
❓ Las Palmas vs Real Betis Form FAQs
What form are Las Palmas and Real Betis in coming into this match?
Las Palmas have gone 10W 7D 18L in their last 35 games (1.06 PPG), while Real Betis have gone 14W 13D 8L in their last 35 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Las Palmas at home or Real Betis away?
Las Palmas's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Las Palmas at home: 1.29 PPG; Real Betis away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Las Palmas or Real Betis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Las Palmas have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Real Betis in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 9 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Las Palmas's record when hosting Real Betis specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Las Palmas
2
Draws
2
Real Betis
Recent Meetings
❓ Las Palmas vs Real Betis H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Real Betis?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Las Palmas have won 0, Real Betis have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Las Palmas and Real Betis last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 March 2025: Real Betis 1-0 Las Palmas.
Who has won more matches between Las Palmas and Real Betis?
Real Betis have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Las Palmas see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 60% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Real Betis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Las Palmas 41%, Real Betis 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Las Palmas) and 41% (Real Betis).
On the defensive side: Las Palmas have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Las Palmas home games / Real Betis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Las Palmas vs Real Betis Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Las Palmas and Real Betis matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Las Palmas's recent matches and 59% of Real Betis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Las Palmas and Real Betis matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Las Palmas's recent games and 41% of Real Betis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Las Palmas and Real Betis matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 53% of Las Palmas's recent matches and 76% of Real Betis's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Las Palmas and Real Betis share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Regular Season - 36, as Las Palmas and Real Betis drew 2-2 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Las Palmas 0.86 xG and Real Betis 1.38 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Las Palmas beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Las Palmas attack 0.65 / defence 1.13 against Real Betis attack 1.11 / defence 0.94, drawn from 35/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Las Palmas 23% | Draw 28% | Real Betis 49%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Las Palmas 29%, Real Betis 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Las Palmas's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.
Real Betis's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Betis arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Las Palmas (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Real Betis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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