Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Granada CF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rayo Vallecano at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rayo Vallecano vs Granada CF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Granada CF travel to Estadio de Vallecas to take on Rayo Vallecano. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 15 May 2024, 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Rayo Vallecano — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Rayo Vallecano at Estadio de Vallecas this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Granada CF stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Granada CF have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Rayo Vallecano 1.00 PPG, Granada CF 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Rayo Vallecano, 0 for Granada CF and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2023, ended 2–0 with Rayo Vallecano winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Rayo Vallecano in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Granada CF in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rayo Vallecano 34% versus Granada CF 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rayo Vallecano 34% | Granada CF 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayo Vallecano 1.41 xG and Granada CF 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.737 / defence 0.939 | Granada CF attack 0.673 / defence 1.342. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.090. Rayo Vallecano's attack strength of 0.737 is below the league average — the 1.41 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Granada CF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.342 — this is suppressing Rayo Vallecano's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 73 Rayo Vallecano games / 35 Granada CF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 54% | Draw 27% | Granada CF 18%. Fair-value odds: Rayo Vallecano 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Granada CF 5.56. Rayo Vallecano hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rayo Vallecano are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rayo Vallecano offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rayo Vallecano 40% | Granada CF 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayo Vallecano vs Granada CF | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Estadio de Vallecas • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 May 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 54% | Draw 27% | Granada CF 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 38% | xG Rayo Vallecano 1.41 / Granada CF 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.737 / def 0.939 | Granada CF attack 0.673 / def 1.342 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Rayo Vallecano (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Rayo Vallecano xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Granada CF xG
38%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayo Vallecano vs Granada CF kick off?
Rayo Vallecano vs Granada CF kicked off at 18:30 on Wednesday 15 May 2024 at Estadio de Vallecas.
What was the final score in Rayo Vallecano vs Granada CF?
Rayo Vallecano 2 - 1 Granada CF.
Where is Rayo Vallecano vs Granada CF being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Vallecas.
What competition is Rayo Vallecano vs Granada CF part of?
Rayo Vallecano vs Granada CF is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Rayo Vallecano vs Granada CF?
Our statistical model gives Rayo Vallecano a 54% chance of winning, Granada CF a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Rayo Vallecano the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Granada CF?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Rayo Vallecano and Granada CF will score (BTTS).
Will Rayo Vallecano vs Granada CF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Granada CF?
Record (3 meetings): Rayo Vallecano 2W | Draws 1 | Granada CF 0W.
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Granada CF in?
Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Granada CF (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Rayo Vallecano's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Granada CF's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Granada CF's attack versus Rayo Vallecano's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayo Vallecano Win
54%
1.84
27%
3.65
18%
5.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Rayo Vallecano xG
Total xG
2.10
0.69
Granada CF xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
5.47
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
24%
4.08
Win to Nil
27%
3.67
4%
22.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 8.5 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 11.9 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 8.4 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayo Vallecano vs Granada CF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Rayo Vallecano and Granada CF expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano and 0.69 for Granada CF, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayo Vallecano vs Granada CF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 35 outings, Rayo Vallecano have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 7W 14D 14L record — D-W-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Granada CF's form line: 4W 9D 22L from 35 games, 0.60 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Rayo Vallecano are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Granada CF.
Venue Form
On home soil, Rayo Vallecano have posted 1.00 PPG from 17 outings (3W 8D 6L).
On the road, Granada CF have gone 0W 3D 14L from 17 away games — 0.18 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.60 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Granada CF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rayo Vallecano come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rayo Vallecano are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Granada CF are on 1.03 scored and 1.94 conceded.
Defensively: Rayo Vallecano have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayo Vallecano
Current Season
Granada CF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Granada CF in coming into this match?
Rayo Vallecano have gone 7W 14D 14L in their last 35 games (1.00 PPG), while Granada CF have gone 4W 9D 22L in their last 35 (0.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayo Vallecano at home or Granada CF away?
Rayo Vallecano's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayo Vallecano at home: 1.00 PPG; Granada CF away: 0.18 PPG.
Have Rayo Vallecano or Granada CF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rayo Vallecano have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Granada CF in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Rayo Vallecano have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2021, when Rayo Vallecano won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rayo Vallecano's record when hosting Granada CF specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Rayo Vallecano
1
Draws
0
Granada CF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Granada CF?
From 4 meetings on record, Rayo Vallecano have won 3, Granada CF have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rayo Vallecano and Granada CF last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2024, when Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Granada CF.
Who has won more matches between Rayo Vallecano and Granada CF?
Rayo Vallecano have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rayo Vallecano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rayo Vallecano 53%, Granada CF 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Rayo Vallecano) and 41% (Granada CF).
On the defensive side: Rayo Vallecano have failed to score in 35% of games; Granada CF in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayo Vallecano home games / Granada CF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rayo Vallecano play Granada CF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Rayo Vallecano's recent matches and 41% of Granada CF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rayo Vallecano vs Granada CF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Rayo Vallecano's recent games and 41% of Granada CF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rayo Vallecano and Granada CF tend to score early?
Rayo Vallecano have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Granada CF in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rayo Vallecano edge out Granada CF 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rayo Vallecano beat Granada CF 2-1 at Estadio de Vallecas, Regular Season - 36, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayo Vallecano 1.41 xG and Granada CF 0.69 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayo Vallecano attack 0.74 / defence 0.94 against Granada CF attack 0.67 / defence 1.34, drawn from 73/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayo Vallecano 54% | Draw 27% | Granada CF 18%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayo Vallecano 34%, Granada CF 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Granada CF's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rayo Vallecano arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.60. That form edge translated into the three points. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.