Girona 2-1 Valencia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Girona at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Girona vs Valencia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 15 as Girona welcome Valencia to Estadi Municipal de Montilivi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 December 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Girona stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 La Liga matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Girona's home record at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi: 6W 1D 3L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi this season.
Valencia — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Valencia have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Girona are in the better shape of the two on current La Liga data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Girona register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Valencia in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Girona, 1 for Valencia and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2023, ended 1–0 with Girona winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Girona in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Valencia in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 69% versus Valencia 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 60% | Valencia 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 2.32 xG and Valencia 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 1.237 / defence 1.072 | Valencia attack 0.966 / defence 1.247. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.195. Valencia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.247 — this is suppressing Girona's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Girona games / 52 Valencia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Girona 61% | Draw 21% | Valencia 18%. Fair-value odds: Girona 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Valencia 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Girona (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.32 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Girona as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.56 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Girona 60% | Valencia 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Dec 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 61% | Draw 21% | Valencia 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 65% | xG Girona 2.32 / Valencia 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 1.237 / def 1.072 | Valencia attack 0.966 / def 1.247 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Girona (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.32
Girona xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Valencia xG
65%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Girona vs Valencia kick off?
Girona vs Valencia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Valencia?
Girona 2 - 1 Valencia.
Where is Girona vs Valencia being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Valencia part of?
Girona vs Valencia is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 61% chance of winning, Valencia a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Girona and Valencia will score (BTTS).
Will Girona vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Valencia?
Record (2 meetings): Girona 1W | Draws 0 | Valencia 1W.
What form are Girona and Valencia in?
Girona (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Valencia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Girona's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Valencia's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.32. The same calculation in reverse, Valencia's attack versus Girona's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.2%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
61%
1.65
21%
4.68
18%
5.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
2 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.32
Girona xG
Total xG
3.56
1.24
Valencia xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
5.53
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
10%
10.20
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
2%
56.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Girona and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 2.32 expected goals for Girona and 1.24 for Valencia, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Valencia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Girona's recent record stands at 24W 12D 16L from 52 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Girona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valencia, meanwhile, have gone 16W 13D 23L across 52 games — 1.17 PPG, with W-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Valencia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Girona by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Valencia heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Girona have managed 15W 4D 7L from 26 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Valencia's away record stands at 4W 7D 15L across 26 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valencia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Girona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Girona are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 1.12 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Girona have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Blended
Valencia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Girona and Valencia in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 24W 12D 16L in their last 52 games (1.62 PPG), while Valencia have gone 16W 13D 23L in their last 52 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Valencia away?
Girona's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 1.88 PPG; Valencia away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Girona and Valencia runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Girona's record when hosting Valencia specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Girona
1
Draws
3
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Valencia?
From 8 meetings on record, Girona have won 4, Valencia have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Girona and Valencia last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Valencia 2-1 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Valencia?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Girona 65%, Valencia 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Girona) and 50% (Valencia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Valencia in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Girona play Valencia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Girona's games and 58% of Valencia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Girona vs Valencia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Girona's matches and 50% of Valencia's.
Do Girona and Valencia tend to score early?
Girona have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Valencia in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Girona edge out Valencia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona beat Valencia 2-1 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 15, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 2.32 xG and Valencia 1.24 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 1.24 / defence 1.07 against Valencia attack 0.97 / defence 1.25, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 61% | Draw 21% | Valencia 18%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 60%, Valencia 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Valencia's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.