Celta Vigo 1-1 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Celta Vigo at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Celta Vigo vs Cadiz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cadiz make the trip to Estadio Abanca-Balaídos to face Celta Vigo in La Liga, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Monday 4 December 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Celta Vigo (all games): 0W 4D 6L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Celta Vigo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Celta Vigo at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cadiz have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 0W 4D 6L. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cadiz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cadiz have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.40 for Celta Vigo, 0.40 for Cadiz — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Celta Vigo lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 May 2023, ended 0–1 with Cadiz winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Celta Vigo — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Cadiz — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Celta Vigo 54% versus Cadiz 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Celta Vigo 48% | Cadiz 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 1.19 xG and Cadiz 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 0.733 / defence 1.157 | Cadiz attack 0.821 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.134. Celta Vigo's attack strength of 0.733 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 52 Celta Vigo games / 52 Cadiz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 36% | Draw 33% | Cadiz 31%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Cadiz 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Celta Vigo are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Celta Vigo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Celta Vigo 60% | Cadiz 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Celta Vigo vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estadio Abanca-Balaídos • Kick-off: Monday 4 Dec 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Celta Vigo 36% | Draw 33% | Cadiz 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 48% | xG Celta Vigo 1.19 / Cadiz 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Celta Vigo attack 0.733 / def 1.157 | Cadiz attack 0.821 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Celta Vigo (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Celta Vigo xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Cadiz xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Celta Vigo vs Cadiz kick off?
Celta Vigo vs Cadiz kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 4 December 2023 at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos.
What was the final score in Celta Vigo vs Cadiz?
Celta Vigo 1 - 1 Cadiz.
Where is Celta Vigo vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos.
What competition is Celta Vigo vs Cadiz part of?
Celta Vigo vs Cadiz is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Celta Vigo vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Celta Vigo a 36% chance of winning, Cadiz a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Celta Vigo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Celta Vigo and Cadiz will score (BTTS).
Will Celta Vigo vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Cadiz?
Record (4 meetings): Celta Vigo 1W | Draws 1 | Cadiz 2W.
What form are Celta Vigo and Cadiz in?
Celta Vigo (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Cadiz (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Celta Vigo's attack at 0.73x the league average against Cadiz's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cadiz's attack (0.82x) against Celta Vigo's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Celta Vigo Win
36%
2.78
33%
3.00
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Celta Vigo xG
Total xG
2.26
1.08
Cadiz xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
12%
8.16
9%
10.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 11.2 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Celta Vigo and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 1.08 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Celta Vigo vs Cadiz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Celta Vigo come into this having played 52 games, going 12W 15D 25L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-D. The sample for Celta Vigo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cadiz sit at 1.02 PPG from 52 outings (12W 17D 23L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Cadiz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.98 PPG for Celta Vigo against 1.02 for Cadiz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Celta Vigo's home form reads 7W 9D 10L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Cadiz have taken 0.65 points per game from 26 outings (3W 8D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Celta Vigo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Celta Vigo are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.79 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 52 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Celta Vigo
Blended
Cadiz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Celta Vigo and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Celta Vigo have gone 12W 15D 25L in their last 52 games (0.98 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 12W 17D 23L in their last 52 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Celta Vigo at home or Cadiz away?
Celta Vigo's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Celta Vigo at home: 1.15 PPG; Cadiz away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Celta Vigo won 3-0 on 2 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Celta Vigo have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cadiz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Celta Vigo
3
Draws
2
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Cadiz?
From 6 meetings on record, Celta Vigo have won 1, Cadiz have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Celta Vigo and Cadiz last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2024, when Cadiz 2-2 Celta Vigo.
Who has won more matches between Celta Vigo and Cadiz?
Cadiz have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Celta Vigo 54%, Cadiz 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Celta Vigo) and 27% (Cadiz).
On the defensive side: Cadiz in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Celta Vigo home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Celta Vigo play Cadiz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Celta Vigo's recent matches and 38% of Cadiz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Celta Vigo vs Cadiz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Celta Vigo's recent games and 27% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Celta Vigo and Cadiz tend to score early?
Celta Vigo have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Cadiz in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Celta Vigo and Cadiz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, Regular Season - 15, as Celta Vigo and Cadiz drew 1-1 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.19 xG and Cadiz 1.08 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 0.73 / defence 1.16 against Cadiz attack 0.82 / defence 1.09, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 36% | Draw 33% | Cadiz 31%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 48%, Cadiz 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Celta Vigo's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Cadiz's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 0.98 PPG, Cadiz 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.