Cadiz 1-1 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cadiz at 39%, yet the head-to-head data favours Osasuna — this Cadiz vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cadiz host Osasuna at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla in La Liga (matchday 16). Kick-off is Sunday 10 December 2023 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Cadiz — last 10 games: 0W 5D 5L, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Cadiz's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Cadiz are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Osasuna stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Osasuna's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cadiz at 0.50 PPG versus Osasuna's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
Osasuna have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Cadiz.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Apr 2023, ended Cadiz 0–1 Osasuna — a Osasuna win.
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
Cadiz in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Osasuna in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 38% versus Osasuna 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cadiz 30% | Osasuna 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 1.44 xG and Osasuna 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.810 / defence 1.075 | Osasuna attack 1.045 / defence 1.228. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.128. Osasuna's defence rating of 1.228 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cadiz's projected output up. Data: built from Cadiz's last 53 games and Osasuna's last 53.
Result probabilities: Cadiz 39% | Draw 30% | Osasuna 31%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 2.56 | Draw 3.38 | Osasuna 3.19. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cadiz at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cadiz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Cadiz 40% (last 10 home games) | Osasuna 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, matchday 16 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Sunday 10 December 2023 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 39% | Draw 30% | Osasuna 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Cadiz 1.44 / Osasuna 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.810 / def 1.075 | Osasuna attack 1.045 / def 1.228 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Cadiz (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Osasuna xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cadiz vs Osasuna FAQs
What time does Cadiz vs Osasuna kick off?
Cadiz vs Osasuna kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 10 December 2023 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Osasuna?
Cadiz 1 - 1 Osasuna.
Where is Cadiz vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Osasuna part of?
Cadiz vs Osasuna is a La Liga fixture (matchday 16) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 39% chance of winning, Osasuna a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cadiz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Cadiz and Osasuna will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cadiz vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cadiz's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Osasuna's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Cadiz's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cadiz's last 53 games and Osasuna's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cadiz Win
39%
2.56
30%
3.38
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Cadiz xG
Total xG
2.70
1.27
Osasuna xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
11%
9.09
7%
13.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.2 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cadiz vs Osasuna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Cadiz and 1.27 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cadiz's recent record stands at 12W 18D 23L from 53 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-D in the last five.
Osasuna, meanwhile, have gone 19W 11D 23L across 53 games — 1.28 PPG, with L-L-D-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cadiz on 1.02 PPG, Osasuna on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cadiz have managed 9W 9D 8L from their last 26 home games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Osasuna's away record stands at 7W 7D 12L across their last 26 away games, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cadiz are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.02 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
Cadiz (Home) vs Osasuna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cadiz
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Cadiz vs Osasuna Form FAQs
What form are Cadiz and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 12W 18D 23L in their last 53 games (1.02 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 19W 11D 23L in their last 53 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Osasuna away?
Cadiz's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 1.38 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Cadiz's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Cadiz
1
Draws
5
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Cadiz vs Osasuna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Osasuna?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Cadiz have won 0, Osasuna have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Osasuna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 February 2024: Osasuna 2-0 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Cadiz and Osasuna?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 35%, Osasuna 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Cadiz) and 38% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Cadiz keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Cadiz have failed to score in 42% of games; Osasuna in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cadiz vs Osasuna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cadiz and Osasuna matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Cadiz's recent matches and 46% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cadiz and Osasuna matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Cadiz's recent games and 38% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cadiz and Osasuna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 54% of Cadiz's recent matches and 73% of Osasuna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cadiz and Osasuna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cadiz and Osasuna finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 16, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 1.44 xG and Osasuna 1.27 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.81 / defence 1.07 against Osasuna attack 1.04 / defence 1.23, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 39% | Draw 30% | Osasuna 31%, with Cadiz to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 30%, Osasuna 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Osasuna's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cadiz 1.02 PPG, Osasuna 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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