Alaves 0-1 Valencia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alaves at 64% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alaves vs Valencia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Valencia make the trip to Estadio Mendizorrotza to face Alaves in La Liga, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Tuesday 15 September 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Alaves have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Alaves have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Alaves's home record at Estadio Mendizorrotza: 5W 3D 2L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Valencia's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Valencia have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Valencia have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Alaves's favour (1.70 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Alaves lead 4W to 2W over the last 8 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2026, ended 2–3 with Valencia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Alaves — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Valencia — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 63% versus Valencia 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 51% | Valencia 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 2.17 xG and Valencia 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 1.290 / defence 0.921 | Valencia attack 0.841 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.235. Alaves carry an above-average attack strength of 1.290 — their λ of 2.17 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 43 Alaves games / 43 Valencia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 64% | Draw 21% | Valencia 15%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 1.56 | Draw 4.76 | Valencia 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Alaves (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alaves are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Alaves 70% | Valencia 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Sep 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 64% | Draw 21% | Valencia 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 55% | xG Alaves 2.17 / Valencia 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 1.290 / def 0.921 | Valencia attack 0.841 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Alaves (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Valencia xG
55%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Valencia kick off?
Alaves vs Valencia kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 15 September 2026 at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Valencia?
Alaves 0 - 1 Valencia.
Where is Alaves vs Valencia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
What competition is Alaves vs Valencia part of?
Alaves vs Valencia is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 64% chance of winning, Valencia a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Alaves and Valencia will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Valencia?
Record (8 meetings): Alaves 4W | Draws 2 | Valencia 2W.
What form are Alaves and Valencia in?
Alaves (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Valencia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Alaves's attack at 1.29x the league average against Valencia's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 2.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Valencia's attack (0.84x) against Alaves's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
64%
1.56
21%
4.70
15%
6.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Alaves xG
Total xG
3.13
0.96
Valencia xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
6.86
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
11%
8.76
Win to Nil
25%
4.05
2%
60.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Alaves and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Alaves and 0.96 for Valencia, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Valencia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Alaves come into this having played 43 games, going 14W 11D 18L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Alaves, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Valencia sit at 1.16 PPG from 43 outings (13W 11D 19L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Valencia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Alaves against 1.16 for Valencia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Alaves's home form reads 9W 6D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Valencia have taken 0.90 points per game from 21 outings (5W 4D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alaves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Alaves are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 1.09 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alaves have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Early Season
Valencia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Valencia in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 14W 11D 18L in their last 43 games (1.23 PPG), while Valencia have gone 13W 11D 19L in their last 43 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Valencia away?
Alaves's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.57 PPG; Valencia away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 15 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Valencia have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valencia won 3-0 on 27 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alaves have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Valencia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Alaves
2
Draws
3
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Valencia?
From 9 meetings on record, Alaves have won 4, Valencia have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Valencia last play each other?
They last met on 15 September 2026, when Alaves 0-1 Valencia.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Valencia?
Alaves have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 67%, Valencia 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Alaves) and 48% (Valencia).
On the defensive side: Valencia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Valencia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Alaves's games and 48% of Valencia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alaves vs Valencia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Alaves's recent games and 48% of Valencia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Valencia tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Valencia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Valencia defy the odds to beat Alaves 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valencia beat Alaves 0-1 at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Regular Season - 6, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 2.17 xG and Valencia 0.96 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Alaves fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 1.29 / defence 0.92 against Valencia attack 0.84 / defence 1.07, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 64% | Draw 21% | Valencia 15%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Valencia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 51%, Valencia 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Valencia's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alaves 1.23 PPG, Valencia 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valencia win broke the near-deadlock. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward. Valencia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.