Ulsan Hyundai FC 4-2 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Ulsan Hyundai FC (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ulsan Hyundai FC face Suwon City FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC host Suwon City FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in K League 1, Championship Round - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 November 2024 at 05:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 K League 1 matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Ulsan Hyundai FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Suwon City FC — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Suwon City FC away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are in the better shape of the two on current K League 1 data — 1.50 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 1 for Suwon City FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2024, ended 1–2 with Suwon City FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ulsan Hyundai FC trading profile (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Suwon City FC trading profile (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 52% versus Suwon City FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 52% | Suwon City FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.67 xG and Suwon City FC 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.200 / defence 0.934 | Suwon City FC attack 1.064 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.233. Data: 66 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 66 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 48% | Draw 24% | Suwon City FC 28%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Suwon City FC 3.57. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% | Suwon City FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Championship Round - 5 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 48% | Draw 24% | Suwon City FC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.67 / Suwon City FC 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.200 / def 0.934 | Suwon City FC attack 1.064 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (48%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Suwon City FC xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 05:00 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 4 - 2 Suwon City FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC is a Championship Round - 5 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 48% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC?
Record (5 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 3W | Draws 1 | Suwon City FC 1W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Suwon City FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ulsan Hyundai FC's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Suwon City FC's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon City FC's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
48%
2.09
24%
4.15
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.90
1.23
Suwon City FC xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
19%
5.32
Win to Nil
14%
7.13
5%
18.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.3 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.23 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 75 outings, Ulsan Hyundai FC have picked up 1.93 PPG on a 43W 16D 16L record — W-D-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Suwon City FC's form line: 24W 16D 35L from 75 games, 1.17 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the form team by 0.76 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Suwon City FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 2.30 PPG from 37 outings (26W 7D 4L).
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 11W 8D 18L from 37 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.35 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 43W 16D 16L in their last 75 games (1.93 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 24W 16D 35L in their last 75 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Suwon City FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.30 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Suwon City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Suwon City FC in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2024, when Ulsan Hyundai FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Suwon City FC specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
2
Draws
3
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, Suwon City FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 57%, Suwon City FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 54% (Suwon City FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Suwon City FC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Suwon City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 60% of Suwon City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's matches and 54% of Suwon City FC's.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Suwon City FC in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ulsan Hyundai FC cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Suwon City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Suwon City FC 4-2 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Championship Round - 5, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.67 xG and Suwon City FC 1.23 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.20 / defence 0.93 against Suwon City FC attack 1.06 / defence 0.95, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 48% | Draw 24% | Suwon City FC 28%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 52%, Suwon City FC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.