Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-2 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 38%, yet in-form Ulsan Hyundai FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Gimcheon Sangmu FC travel to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium to take on Ulsan Hyundai FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 May 2025, 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Ulsan Hyundai FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are in the better shape of the two on current K League 1 data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 1 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2025, ended 0–2 with Gimcheon Sangmu FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ulsan Hyundai FC trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Gimcheon Sangmu FC trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 47% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.34 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.136 / defence 0.948 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.413 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.145 / away 1.036. Gimcheon Sangmu FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.413 — the away xG of 1.39 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 47 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 36% | Draw 26% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ulsan Hyundai FC (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 May 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 36% | Draw 26% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.34 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.136 / def 0.948 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.413 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.145 / away 1.036 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 24 May 2025 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 3 - 2 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 36% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Record (5 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 2W | Draws 2 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ulsan Hyundai FC's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
36%
2.78
26%
3.90
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.73
1.39
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
9%
11.12
10%
9.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.2 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.39 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Ulsan Hyundai FC have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 21W 9D 8L record — D-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form line: 18W 9D 11L from 38 games, 1.66 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ulsan Hyundai FC on 1.89 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 2.37 PPG from 19 outings (14W 3D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.89 PPG overall — Ulsan Hyundai FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 7W 5D 7L from 19 away games — 1.37 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are on 1.45 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 21W 9D 8L in their last 38 games (1.89 PPG), while Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 18W 9D 11L in their last 38 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Gimcheon Sangmu FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.37 PPG; Gimcheon Sangmu FC away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Gimcheon Sangmu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ulsan Hyundai FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2025, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Gimcheon Sangmu FC specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
3
Draws
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 47% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 32%; Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent matches and 42% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's matches and 47% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ulsan Hyundai FC defy the odds to beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3-2 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.34 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.39 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.14 / defence 0.95 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.41 / defence 1.03, drawn from 49/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 36% | Draw 26% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 38%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Ulsan Hyundai FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 47%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.89 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ulsan Hyundai FC win broke the near-deadlock. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.