Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0 Gwangju FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gwangju FC meet at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 September 2021 at 08:30 UTC.
Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 K League 1 appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gwangju FC have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Gwangju FC have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Ulsan Hyundai FC. A 0.60 PPG lead over Gwangju FC (2.10 vs 1.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Ulsan Hyundai FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Gwangju FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 62% versus Gwangju FC 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 59% | Gwangju FC 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.74 xG and Gwangju FC 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.273 / defence 1.216 | Gwangju FC attack 0.760 / defence 1.368. League average goals — home 1.000 / away 1.173. Ulsan Hyundai FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.273 — their λ of 1.74 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Gwangju FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.368 — this is suppressing Ulsan Hyundai FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 29 Gwangju FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 52% | Draw 24% | Gwangju FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Gwangju FC 4.35. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% | Gwangju FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 52% | Draw 24% | Gwangju FC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.74 / Gwangju FC 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.273 / def 1.216 | Gwangju FC attack 0.760 / def 1.368 | league avg home 1.000 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Gwangju FC xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC kicked off at 08:30 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 1 - 0 Gwangju FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 52% chance of winning, Gwangju FC a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gwangju FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gwangju FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gwangju FC in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Gwangju FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ulsan Hyundai FC's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Gwangju FC's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. Flip it around — Gwangju FC's attack (0.76x) against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 30/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
52%
1.91
24%
4.11
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.83
1.08
Gwangju FC xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
18%
5.71
Win to Nil
18%
5.63
4%
24.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.2 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gwangju FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.08 for Gwangju FC, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 29 outings, Ulsan Hyundai FC have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 15W 10D 4L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Gwangju FC's form line: 8W 6D 15L from 29 games, 1.03 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-L.
Put side by side, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gwangju FC.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 2.07 PPG from 14 outings (8W 5D 1L).
On the road, Gwangju FC have gone 3W 2D 9L from 14 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Gwangju FC are on 1.00 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ulsan Hyundai FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Gwangju FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gwangju FC in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 15W 10D 4L in their last 29 games (1.90 PPG), while Gwangju FC have gone 8W 6D 15L in their last 29 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Gwangju FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.07 PPG; Gwangju FC away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Gwangju FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Gwangju FC in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ulsan Hyundai FC won 5-1 on 19 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Gwangju FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ulsan Hyundai FC
2
Draws
4
Gwangju FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gwangju FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 4, Gwangju FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gwangju FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when Gwangju FC 1-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Gwangju FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 64%, Gwangju FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 50% (Gwangju FC).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Gwangju FC in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Gwangju FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Gwangju FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 50% of Gwangju FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gwangju FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent games and 50% of Gwangju FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gwangju FC tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Gwangju FC in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ulsan Hyundai FC edge out Gwangju FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Gwangju FC 1-0 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.74 xG and Gwangju FC 1.08 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gwangju FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.27 / defence 1.22 against Gwangju FC attack 0.76 / defence 1.37, drawn from 30/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 52% | Draw 24% | Gwangju FC 23%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 59%, Gwangju FC 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gwangju FC's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.03. Form held, and they took the win. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.