Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-1 FC Anyang – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Anyang at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Anyang fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 21 as Ulsan Hyundai FC welcome FC Anyang to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 August 2026 at 10:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium: 4W 1D 5L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Anyang stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Anyang, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Anyang have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.40 PPG, FC Anyang 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 2 for FC Anyang and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.6 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Ulsan Hyundai FC trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
FC Anyang trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ulsan Hyundai FC 57% and FC Anyang 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 45% | FC Anyang 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.20 xG and FC Anyang 1.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.146 / defence 1.269 | FC Anyang attack 1.175 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.052 / away 1.303. Data: 53 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 53 FC Anyang games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 21% | Draw 27% | FC Anyang 52%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 4.76 | Draw 3.70 | FC Anyang 1.92. FC Anyang hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.20 / 1.94) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Anyang at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Anyang offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% | FC Anyang 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Anyang | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Aug 2026, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 21% | Draw 27% | FC Anyang 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.20 / FC Anyang 1.94 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.146 / def 1.269 | FC Anyang attack 1.175 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.052 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: FC Anyang (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.94
FC Anyang xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Anyang kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Anyang kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 2 August 2026 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Anyang?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 3 - 1 FC Anyang.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Anyang being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Anyang part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Anyang is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Anyang?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 21% chance of winning, FC Anyang a 52% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Anyang the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Anyang?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Anyang will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Anyang have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Anyang?
Record (5 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 1W | Draws 2 | FC Anyang 2W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Anyang in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. FC Anyang (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack rating (1.15) and FC Anyang's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Anyang's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 1.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Anyang Win
21%
4.76
27%
3.76
52%
1.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
3.14
1.94
FC Anyang xG
4.76
21%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
1.91
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
14%
6.98
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
3%
33.25
16%
6.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Anyang?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Anyang expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.94 for FC Anyang, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Anyang?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ulsan Hyundai FC come into this having played 58 games, going 20W 15D 23L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-W. The sample for Ulsan Hyundai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Anyang sit at 1.36 PPG from 58 outings (21W 16D 21L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for FC Anyang is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ulsan Hyundai FC on 1.29 PPG, FC Anyang on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home form reads 11W 6D 12L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.34 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Anyang have taken 1.38 points per game from 29 outings (11W 7D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; FC Anyang are on 1.33 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Anyang in 66%.
Last 58 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Blended
FC Anyang
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Anyang in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 20W 15D 23L in their last 58 games (1.29 PPG), while FC Anyang have gone 21W 16D 21L in their last 58 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or FC Anyang away?
FC Anyang's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 1.34 PPG; FC Anyang away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Anyang runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting FC Anyang specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Ulsan Hyundai FC
2
Draws
2
FC Anyang
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Anyang?
From 6 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 2, FC Anyang have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Anyang last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-1 FC Anyang.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
FC Anyang are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 52%, FC Anyang 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 52% (FC Anyang).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / FC Anyang away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play FC Anyang?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 66% of FC Anyang's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Anyang usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent games and 52% of FC Anyang's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Anyang tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, FC Anyang in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ulsan Hyundai FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC Anyang.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat FC Anyang 3-1 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.20 xG and FC Anyang 1.94 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Anyang landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.15 / defence 1.27 against FC Anyang attack 1.18 / defence 0.99, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 21% | Draw 27% | FC Anyang 52%, with FC Anyang to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Ulsan Hyundai FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 45%, FC Anyang 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
FC Anyang's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.29 PPG, FC Anyang 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ulsan Hyundai FC win broke the near-deadlock. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm. FC Anyang (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.