Suwon City FC 3-2 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Suwon World Cup Stadium plays host to Suwon City FC versus Jeonbuk Motors in K League 1, Championship Round - 3. Kick-off: Sunday 21 November 2021 at 05:00 UTC.
Current Form
Suwon City FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Suwon City FC have posted 5W 1D 4L at Suwon World Cup Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Suwon City FC are significantly better at Suwon World Cup Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Jeonbuk Motors (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Jeonbuk Motors's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Jeonbuk Motors arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Suwon City FC half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Jeonbuk Motors half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 63% versus Jeonbuk Motors 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 63% | Jeonbuk Motors 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.03 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.001 / defence 1.315 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.955 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 0.937 / away 1.264. Data: 33 Suwon City FC games / 33 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 25% | Draw 25% | Jeonbuk Motors 50%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 4.00 | Draw 4.00 | Jeonbuk Motors 2.00. Jeonbuk Motors hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jeonbuk Motors at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Suwon City FC 60% | Jeonbuk Motors 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Championship Round - 3 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 25% | Draw 25% | Jeonbuk Motors 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Suwon City FC 1.03 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 1.001 / def 1.315 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.955 / def 1.097 | league avg home 0.937 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Jeonbuk Motors xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 05:00 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Suwon City FC 3 - 2 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Championship Round - 3 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 25% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 50% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Suwon City FC's attack rating (1.00) and Jeonbuk Motors's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jeonbuk Motors's attack (0.95x) against Suwon City FC's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 1-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
25%
4.07
25%
3.99
50%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.62
1.59
Jeonbuk Motors xG
4.07
25%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
1.98
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
20%
4.89
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
5%
19.94
18%
5.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 11.6 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.59 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Suwon City FC's recent record stands at 12W 9D 14L from 35 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Jeonbuk Motors, meanwhile, have gone 20W 10D 5L across 35 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jeonbuk Motors by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Suwon City FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Suwon City FC have managed 7W 3D 7L from 17 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jeonbuk Motors's away record stands at 8W 7D 2L across 17 trips, a 1.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Jeonbuk Motors are on 1.86 scored and 0.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 12W 9D 14L in their last 35 games (1.29 PPG), while Jeonbuk Motors have gone 20W 10D 5L in their last 35 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Jeonbuk Motors away?
Jeonbuk Motors's away record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.41 PPG; Jeonbuk Motors away: 1.82 PPG.
Have Suwon City FC or Jeonbuk Motors been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suwon City FC have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Jeonbuk Motors in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Jeonbuk Motors go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jeonbuk Motors won 0-6 on 14 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon City FC have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jeonbuk Motors — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Suwon City FC
1
Draws
7
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 2, Jeonbuk Motors have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Jeonbuk Motors 2-0 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 65%, Jeonbuk Motors 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Suwon City FC) and 41% (Jeonbuk Motors).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors in 35%; Jeonbuk Motors in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play Jeonbuk Motors?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Suwon City FC's games and 53% of Jeonbuk Motors's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon City FC vs Jeonbuk Motors usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Suwon City FC's recent games and 41% of Jeonbuk Motors's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suwon City FC and Jeonbuk Motors tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Jeonbuk Motors in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Suwon City FC defy the odds to beat Jeonbuk Motors 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat Jeonbuk Motors 3-2 at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Championship Round - 3, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.03 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.59 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Suwon City FC beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.31 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.95 / defence 1.10, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 25% | Draw 25% | Jeonbuk Motors 50%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Suwon City FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 63%, Jeonbuk Motors 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.29. Form was overturned, with Suwon City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.