Suwon City FC 5-0 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 28 as Suwon City FC welcome Jeju United FC to Suwon Sports Complex. Kick-off is set for Sunday 25 August 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Suwon City FC — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Suwon City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Suwon Sports Complex, Suwon City FC have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeju United FC have recorded 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Jeju United FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Jeju United FC have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Suwon City FC have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Suwon City FC have won 1, Jeju United FC 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2024, ended 0–1 with Jeju United FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Suwon City FC in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Jeju United FC in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 62% versus Jeju United FC 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 57% | Jeju United FC 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.44 xG and Jeju United FC 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 0.954 / defence 1.078 | Jeju United FC attack 0.697 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.435 / away 1.136. Data: 60 Suwon City FC games / 60 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 51% | Draw 27% | Jeju United FC 22%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Jeju United FC 4.55. Suwon City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Jeju United FC lead the H2H ledger, but Suwon City FC carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Suwon City FC are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Suwon City FC 60% | Jeju United FC 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Aug 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 51% | Draw 27% | Jeju United FC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Suwon City FC 1.44 / Jeju United FC 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 0.954 / def 1.078 | Jeju United FC attack 0.697 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.435 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Jeju United FC xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 25 August 2024 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC?
Suwon City FC 5 - 0 Jeju United FC.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC part of?
Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 51% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC?
Record (5 meetings): Suwon City FC 1W | Draws 1 | Jeju United FC 3W.
What form are Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Jeju United FC (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Suwon City FC's attack rating (0.95) and Jeju United FC's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jeju United FC's attack versus Suwon City FC's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
51%
1.96
27%
3.72
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.29
0.85
Jeju United FC xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
22%
4.61
5%
19.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 12.4 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 0.85 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Suwon City FC's recent record stands at 22W 13D 30L from 65 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Suwon City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jeju United FC, meanwhile, have gone 20W 13D 32L across 65 games — 1.12 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Jeju United FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Suwon City FC on 1.22 PPG, Jeju United FC on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Suwon City FC have managed 11W 8D 13L from 32 games — 1.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jeju United FC's away record stands at 7W 6D 19L across 32 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Suwon City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.06 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 65 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Blended
Jeju United FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 22W 13D 30L in their last 65 games (1.22 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 20W 13D 32L in their last 65 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Jeju United FC away?
Suwon City FC's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.28 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 25 October 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2023, when Jeju United FC won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Suwon City FC's record when hosting Jeju United FC specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Suwon City FC
1
Draws
6
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 3, Jeju United FC have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-2 Jeju United FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC?
Jeju United FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 66%, Jeju United FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Suwon City FC) and 41% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play Jeju United FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Suwon City FC's games and 50% of Jeju United FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon City FC vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Suwon City FC's recent games and 41% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suwon City FC and Jeju United FC tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Jeju United FC in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Suwon City FC run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Jeju United FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat Jeju United FC 5-0 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 28, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.44 xG and Jeju United FC 0.85 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Suwon City FC beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jeju United FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.08 against Jeju United FC attack 0.70 / defence 1.05, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 51% | Draw 27% | Jeju United FC 22%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 57%, Jeju United FC 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.22 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.