Suwon City FC 2-2 Incheon United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon City FC vs Incheon United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Incheon United travel to Suwon Sports Complex to take on Suwon City FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 21 May 2021, 11:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 2.18 xG and Incheon United 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.200 / defence 1.557 | Incheon United attack 0.774 / defence 1.896. League average goals — home 0.957 / away 1.131. Incheon United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.896 — this is suppressing Suwon City FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Suwon City FC games / 16 Incheon United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 54% | Draw 24% | Incheon United 22%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Incheon United 4.55. Suwon City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.18 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Suwon City FC as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.54 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Incheon United | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Friday 21 May 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 54% | Draw 24% | Incheon United 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 68% | xG Suwon City FC 2.18 / Incheon United 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 1.200 / def 1.557 | Incheon United attack 0.774 / def 1.896 | league avg home 0.957 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Incheon United xG
68%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Incheon United kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Incheon United kicked off at 11:30 on Friday 21 May 2021 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Incheon United?
Suwon City FC 2 - 2 Incheon United.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Incheon United being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Incheon United part of?
Suwon City FC vs Incheon United is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Incheon United?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 54% chance of winning, Incheon United a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Incheon United?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Suwon City FC and Incheon United will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Incheon United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Incheon United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suwon City FC and Incheon United in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Suwon City FC's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Incheon United's defensive record (1.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.18. The same calculation in reverse, Incheon United's attack versus Suwon City FC's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
54%
1.85
24%
4.13
22%
4.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
3.54
1.36
Incheon United xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
4.62
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.11
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
11%
8.81
Win to Nil
14%
7.22
2%
40.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Incheon United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Incheon United expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.36 for Incheon United, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Incheon United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Pre-Season
Incheon United
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 July 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Suwon City FC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Jul 2024, when Suwon City FC won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Suwon City FC's record when hosting Incheon United specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Suwon City FC
5
Draws
1
Incheon United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Incheon United?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 4, Incheon United have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Incheon United last play each other?
They last met on 21 July 2024, when Incheon United 1-4 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Incheon United?
Suwon City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Incheon United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Suwon City FC and Incheon United share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC and Incheon United finished level at 2-2 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 18, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 2.18 xG and Incheon United 1.36 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.20 / defence 1.56 against Incheon United attack 0.77 / defence 1.90, drawn from 17/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 54% | Draw 24% | Incheon United 22%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.