Suwon City FC 2-1 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gangwon FC make the trip to Suwon Sports Complex to face Suwon City FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 April 2021 at 06:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.12 xG and Gangwon FC 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 0.866 / defence 1.209 | Gangwon FC attack 0.799 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.019 / away 0.994. Gangwon FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.275 — this is suppressing Suwon City FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Suwon City FC games / 9 Gangwon FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 36% | Draw 36% | Gangwon FC 28%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.78 | Draw 2.78 | Gangwon FC 3.57. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Apr 2021, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 36% | Draw 36% | Gangwon FC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 45% | xG Suwon City FC 1.12 / Gangwon FC 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 0.866 / def 1.209 | Gangwon FC attack 0.799 / def 1.275 | league avg home 1.019 / away 0.994 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Gangwon FC xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 06:00 on Saturday 17 April 2021 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC?
Suwon City FC 2 - 1 Gangwon FC.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC part of?
Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 36% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 28% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Suwon City FC's attack at 0.87x the league average against Gangwon FC's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gangwon FC's attack (0.80x) against Suwon City FC's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
36%
2.76
36%
2.78
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.08
0.96
Gangwon FC xG
2.76
36%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
9%
11.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 11.9 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 0.96 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Pre-Season
Gangwon FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 21 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Suwon City FC won 4-0 on 9 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon City FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gangwon FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Suwon City FC
3
Draws
4
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 3, Gangwon FC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 September 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-0 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Suwon City FC edge out Gangwon FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat Gangwon FC 2-1 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 10, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.12 xG and Gangwon FC 0.96 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Suwon City FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 0.87 / defence 1.21 against Gangwon FC attack 0.80 / defence 1.27, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 36% | Draw 36% | Gangwon FC 28%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.