Suwon Bluewings 0-1 FC Seoul – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon Bluewings at 42%, yet in-form FC Seoul provide a compelling counter-argument — this Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees FC Seoul travel to Suwon World Cup Stadium to take on Suwon Bluewings. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 June 2022, 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Suwon Bluewings have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Suwon Bluewings at Suwon World Cup Stadium this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Seoul stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 K League 1 matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
FC Seoul's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FC Seoul are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Suwon Bluewings, 2 for FC Seoul and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 0–2 with FC Seoul winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Suwon Bluewings trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
FC Seoul trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon Bluewings 45% versus FC Seoul 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon Bluewings 50% | FC Seoul 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon Bluewings 1.09 xG and FC Seoul 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.949 / defence 0.823 | FC Seoul attack 0.843 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.213 / away 1.145. Data: 48 Suwon Bluewings games / 48 FC Seoul games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 42% | Draw 32% | FC Seoul 26%. Fair-value odds: Suwon Bluewings 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | FC Seoul 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Suwon Bluewings as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Seoul (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon Bluewings offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.88 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates are neutral: Suwon Bluewings 50% | FC Seoul 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jun 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 42% | Draw 32% | FC Seoul 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 36% | xG Suwon Bluewings 1.09 / FC Seoul 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.949 / def 0.823 | FC Seoul attack 0.843 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.213 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Suwon Bluewings (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Suwon Bluewings xG
Expected Goals
0.79
FC Seoul xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul kick off?
Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 19 June 2022 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul?
Suwon Bluewings 0 - 1 FC Seoul.
Where is Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul part of?
Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul?
Our statistical model gives Suwon Bluewings a 42% chance of winning, FC Seoul a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Suwon Bluewings the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Suwon Bluewings and FC Seoul will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and FC Seoul?
Record (3 meetings): Suwon Bluewings 1W | Draws 0 | FC Seoul 2W.
What form are Suwon Bluewings and FC Seoul in?
Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. FC Seoul (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Suwon Bluewings's attack rating (0.95) and FC Seoul's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Seoul's attack versus Suwon Bluewings's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon Bluewings Win
42%
2.37
32%
3.17
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Suwon Bluewings xG
Total xG
1.88
0.79
FC Seoul xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
19%
5.25
9%
11.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 12.1 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 13.2 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.0 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Suwon Bluewings and FC Seoul expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Suwon Bluewings and 0.79 for FC Seoul, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Suwon Bluewings have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 12W 10D 16L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
FC Seoul's form line: 12W 11D 15L from 38 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Suwon Bluewings on 1.21 PPG, FC Seoul on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Suwon Bluewings have posted 1.11 PPG from 19 outings (5W 6D 8L).
On the road, FC Seoul have gone 7W 5D 7L from 19 away games — 1.37 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Suwon Bluewings are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; FC Seoul are on 1.21 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon Bluewings
Current Season
FC Seoul
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon Bluewings and FC Seoul in coming into this match?
Suwon Bluewings have gone 12W 10D 16L in their last 38 games (1.21 PPG), while FC Seoul have gone 12W 11D 15L in their last 38 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon Bluewings at home or FC Seoul away?
FC Seoul's away record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon Bluewings at home: 1.11 PPG; FC Seoul away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Suwon Bluewings or FC Seoul been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suwon Bluewings have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, FC Seoul in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Suwon Bluewings and FC Seoul runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 May 2021, when Suwon Bluewings won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Suwon Bluewings's record when hosting FC Seoul specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Suwon Bluewings
1
Draws
6
FC Seoul
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and FC Seoul?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon Bluewings have won 3, FC Seoul have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Suwon Bluewings and FC Seoul last play each other?
They last met on 25 November 2023, when FC Seoul 0-1 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Suwon Bluewings and FC Seoul?
FC Seoul have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Suwon Bluewings see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
FC Seoul see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon Bluewings 58%, FC Seoul 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Suwon Bluewings) and 37% (FC Seoul).
On the defensive side: Suwon Bluewings have failed to score in 26% of games; FC Seoul in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon Bluewings home games / FC Seoul away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon Bluewings play FC Seoul?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Suwon Bluewings's games and 58% of FC Seoul's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Suwon Bluewings's recent games and 37% of FC Seoul's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as FC Seoul defy the odds to beat Suwon Bluewings 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Seoul beat Suwon Bluewings 0-1 at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon Bluewings 1.09 xG and FC Seoul 0.79 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Suwon Bluewings fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon Bluewings attack 0.95 / defence 0.82 against FC Seoul attack 0.84 / defence 0.95, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon Bluewings 42% | Draw 32% | FC Seoul 26%, with Suwon Bluewings to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual FC Seoul win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon Bluewings 50%, FC Seoul 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Seoul's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon Bluewings 1.21 PPG, FC Seoul 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Seoul win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Seoul (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.